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Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Wednesday, 10/16/13 update

It's fall in and I'm in the apple business, our main gig is apple processing but I do have a piece of actual orchard, so time has been more limited than usual.  Thus I haven't been studying markets as closely as usual, in fact I haven't had any trades on for a good two weeks, not enough hours in the day to do the right job there.
But with that in mind, the time I have spent looking at equities has been troubling - this rally since last Wednesday's lows has felt odd.  Looking at the technicals there is nothing that really stands out, so I can't point at anything in particular that would substantiate the sense of hollowness, but it just doesn't feel right.
And in the ES it's notable that the price pattern since Sunday night looks a lot more like a couple of 3 leg sequences than fives.  So the following chart may be what is unfolding: a "b" wave of Intermediate degree stabbing towards the all time highs of Sep 19.  And that "b" wave is in it's "c" leg which is a developing ending diagonal.  This of course would be an Intermediate "b" wave in an ongoing correction and would lead to a strong and impulsive "c" wave sell off.

Of course the pattern since last Wednesday's lows could just as easily morph into a complete 5 wave impulse to it's eventual top.  So this is presented only as a possibility.
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