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Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Tuesday, 10/8/13 update

In technical analysis, nothing is 100%, and neither is Al's Daily Indicator.  The signal from Sep 30 was obviously wrong, and the indicator has now rolled over and is heading back below 1.000 (reading at today's close is 1.002).  Historically, the best signals from this indicator have occurred when it bottoms below .500, but even there it misses about 1 in 5 times.

 
The bearish alternate from last weekend's post is obviously in play.  Possible EW count looks like this on the short term:


Long term view:


3 comments:

  1. hi Al, am I guessing right in thinking your indicator is showing tentative bottom signs?

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  2. The value of this indicator is it's ability to pinpoint the day a bottom occurs, often it's right on or only off by a day or two. In this case it just plain missed. I think the reason is what I've been observing in the price pattern for the last couple of weeks (except for the last couple of days) - lots of corrective looking 3 wave structures in both directions - so no overwhelming downside push, and thus the indicator drifts up. And this AM it's obvious a bottom of some sort is in place.

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  3. yes obvious, although it is unclear whether it is corrective ahead of new lows, we are at levels which are not confirming either way across major US indices. The lows from yesterday were confirmed across the board by momentum, hence new lows could be in the cards. But equally, reversal patterns could be confirmed with just a tad more fuel. Best of luck to you.

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