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Sunday, November 3, 2013

Sunday, 11/3/13 update

I'd like to think that the print high at ES 1773.25 on Wednesday this past week marked a very significant top as per the above chart.  On Tuesday the ES motored a little above the upper trendline of a channel that has defined the market since the Mar '09 lows.  Then on Wednesday it dropped back below that trendline in the form of a key reversal where the market achieved a new all time high early in the day and then proceeded to drop to a lower low than the prior day followed by a down close.  In addition, the 1773.25 high is very close to a fibonnacci level of 1776.75 where Major W5 = .618 x Major W1. 

Also a number of technical indicators are showing divergences into Wednesday's high, such as a daily RSI and the McClellan Oscillator (1st chart below) and my proprietary daily indicator (2nd chart below).

BUT THEN...............
The pattern since Wednesday's high is beginning to feel like what happened in the mid September through early October correction - a nice downward impulse followed by a lot of waffling sideways crap culminating in a low that established a base for a ramp up into new all time highs.   Perhaps I'm being impatient and the waffling in Thursday and Friday's action is a series of nested 1st & 2nd waves building into a collapse.  If so that collapse needs to develop very soon.  If not then the below alternate count is quite possibly in play.

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