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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Wednesday, 2/22/12 update

The pattern in the ES the last two days can best be counted as a double zig-zag. If the ES is in Minor Wave 4, then today's low could have marked the end of Minute Wave "a". There is a possibility of one more zig-zag, so Minute Wave "a" may have further to go.
Since Minor W2 was a triple zig zag, then Minor W4 should alternate with a three leg flat or a five leg triangle. The chart below assumes a flat with Minute Wave "a" done at today's low. In this scenario Minute "b" should travel back to Sunday night's high at 1369.50, Minute "c" will follow that re-test and drop down to the final low of Minor W4. Using today's low of 1353 a 2.618 multiple of Minute "a" would push Minute "c" to a low of 1326.25. This is right in the area of a .236 retrace of Minor W3 which is at 1328.50. Of course, it's quite early yet, so these projections are pretty speculative.

Also, please note that it's quite possible to see a triangle or some other type of complex formation form. A triangle would be a frustrating sideways grind, but the nice thing about them is they really clarify the possibilities once they're done - they always precede the last thrust in the longer term trend that contains them.
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