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Saturday, February 4, 2012

Saturday, 2/4/12 update



Pretty strong up day on Friday. What looked like a slow uneventful grind earlier in the week sure livened up. That old saying "never short a quiet market" was right on in this case.
The Minor W3 top that seemed apparent a week ago looks to be negated. There haven't been any sell offs of more than a day or two since the lows of Dec 19, and the ones that have occurred have been pretty shallow, so the most likely case is that Minor W3 is continuing to extend. Best guess right now is that the ES is in Minute W5 of Minor W3, so a top should be fairly close at hand. But caution is warranted, this thing could just keep chuggin'.

4 comments:

  1. Very strong market.  Could be reflecting the undeclared QE undertaken by ECB.

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  2. Could be, lots of funny money being floated out there.  Gotta think that in the long run that money is going to be anything but funny.
    Still looking for a short term top in here somewhere, haven't seen it yet.

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  3. There is no divergence in the cummulative A/D and U/D Vol lines that you normally observe prior to major decline.  We may get a flash crash instead.

    Then again, there is this precedent......

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_4pyrAIrniFc/TOA5tByhrDI/AAAAAAAAAAg/XFFo7piIrMs/s1600/weimar_stocks.png

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  4.  Hopefully we're not to the Weimar Republic stage yet, but the way we're going we could get there.
    Not looking for a major top, I'm expecting a Minor Wave 4 correction as per above post then Minor Wave 5 into a more significant top.  Could be seeing Minor 4 in progress right now.

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