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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Tuesday, 2/14/12 update

Looking at the Elliott counts after lunch I noticed that Minute Wave 5 and thus Minor Wave 3 can be better counted as complete at last Thursday's high than as still in progress - a nice little channel can be drawn around the move up from the Jan 30 low into that high. That channel is broken by the price action late last Thursday and into Friday. Further, the move down into the Friday low has three legs, and the move up from there into today's high can also be counted as a three. We may well have already seen the "a" and "b" legs of a 3-3-5 flat formation. Minor Wave 2 was a zig zag, so this idea fits in terms of alternation. If all this is correct, the ES is in the "c" leg of that correction. A 1st target would be the .236 retrace of Minor W3 at 1315.75.

One final note, a sell signal was issued by the Dynamic Oscillator system on the SPX earlier this PM and if the ES stays below 1342 for the next six minutes there will be a sell signal there as well. (currently 1:54 PM CST)

1 comment:

  1. Hi Apple Al,

    I decided to post this in your latest post. Sorry for posting twice.

    I thought I would mosey on over to your site so that
    I can get another lesson in humility. I know virtually nothing on EW
    but it calls to me, so here I am

    First, what is ES? E-mini SnP? Futures? Thanks.

    2nd,  EW is way more complicated than I thought. I do not want to try and catch every single move. Just the big ones.

    I think I understand the following:

    Major wave: Currently wave 3.
    Within wave 3 we are most likely in wave 5 (wave 5 of 3)

    It looks like
    your chart shows wave 1 started at end of November. OK. I can accept
    that because from October low, there is the decline in December which
    could not be wave 4 since wave 3 would then have become the shortest
    wave.

    Now, how do you know when wave 3 has ended and wave 4 has
    started? From the charts, you feel that we will go higher in wave 3
    before beginning wave 4

    How do you know this?

    One last thing (it is a big thing):

    What do you mean with statement below:

    "if the ES/SPX is on the verge of a correction of Minor degree it will be much more shallow and short lived than an Intermediate degree
    sell off.

    What is shallow? 1280-1300?

    Minor wave 4 (01/26 to 01/30, 33 pts)
    Minor Wave 2 (12/07 to 12/19, 65 pts)


    Please be patient with me. I do learn extremely fast as long as I have time to study

    Conclusion: SPX should go to 1368 in wave 3 before beginning wave 4. Can you predict where wave 4 will end?

    Thanks,
    Aaron

    P.S.
    If history is any guide than we should see a correction of ~5-7% during
    wave 4 before seeing wave 5 begin. Does wave 5 by rule have to exceed
    the wave 3 high?

    Also, could you look into labeling the x and y axis on your chart?

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