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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Tuesday, 1/3/12 update

Today's rally in the ES has ruled out the triangle alternate from yesterday's post. But don't despair all you bears because there's another possibility along the same lines. It could be that there still is a medium term double or triple zig-zag bear market formation in the works as per yesterday's Alternate #3, but instead of the "X" wave being a triangle it is itself forming a double zig-zag. In that case, the ES can be counted as being in the "C" or last leg of the second zig-zag. If true, a possible termination spot would be at a trend line connecting the highs from the May top (blue line in chart).


  1. Hi Al,

    Interesting count.  Lets see what the market does. I like the way you trade. Let the market show its hands and go with that.


  2. Ken-
    I'm a very cautious trader, partly out of experience but also because I do it as a sideline, am very busy managing a food processing business as well.  There are a lot of potential trades that I pass on because they would take more monitoring than I have time for.
    Currently in cash since a couple days before Christmas, went flat over the holidays for same reasons you mentioned yesterday.  Could go long here but would be chasing market somewhat, don't like to do that.  So waiting for a higher probability situation, thinking short ES in the near future but we'll see.

  3. You nailed the main thrust of the trend.  That's the bread and butter.  Everything esle is just icing on the cake.