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Monday, January 16, 2012

Monday, 1/16/12 update

The alternate Elliott counts being followed all show that the ES is in the 5th wave of the move up from the lows of Dec 19. There is always the possibility that the rally will lengthen in a 3rd wave extension. However, buying pressure as measured by the Vindicator Buy/Sell has been diverging since Jan 6 and showed a drop off at the end of last week, so the chances of a 3rd wave extension occurring appear slim at this point. So looks like some type of top in the ES is in the near term future.

Vindicator Buy/Sell
(buying pressure - green line, selling pressure - red line)


  1. Disqus is nutty. I can get into the comment section of the newest post, but not those of the previous posts.

    The A/D (10 day SMA) is showing the classic bearish divergence.  So is the U/Dvol (10day SMA). 

  2. There are divergences apparent with other momentum indicators as well (RSI, Stochastics, etc)  - caveat is that divergences are not 100% signals, they can last for a long time and/or just plain be wrong.  But the odds are that they are significant.  I think the larger question is what degree of selling we might see -  short term correction or major selling stampede?  My sense is short term correction, but we'll see.

  3. Yes, I tend to agree that it should be minor pull back.  Major pullback seldom falls out of the blue, as topping is more often than not a process.  Not seeing the kind of divergence normally preceding major decline yet.

    Disqus is really weird.  it lets me in or blocks me randomly.  I am sure it will now block my access to the comment section till may be tomorrow.  lol