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Saturday, January 28, 2012

Saturday, 1/28/12 update

The bull move that started at the lows of Dec 19 appears to have concluded at Thursday's highs. We should see a continuation of the corrective selling that's occurred since then into the middle to end of next week, but the most likely Elliott counts at this juncture indicate more bull market ahead.
Two most plausible Elliott counts at this time:

Alternate #1 (ES daily)

Alternate #1 (ES hourly)

Alternate #2 (ES daily)
Alternate #2 (ES hourly)

A quick look at the LIBOR rate and the TED spread lends credence to the near term bullish scenario. On a macro-economic level LIBOR rates and the TED spread are an indication of liquidity, higher numbers mean less liquidity and lower numbers mean more. Both have formed a top in late December after a run up that started at the end of last July.

TED spread



  1. Thanks for update, Al

    The internal breadth as measured in 10 d ma of the A/D and U/D Vol, shows divergence.  But those stats as measured in cummulative, show no divergennce.  Also, all the other intermediate term risk indicators i use are in bullish mode.  Thus, the decline is unlikely to be any thing big.

  2. Thanks Ken.  That confirms my guess: relatively quick and shallow correction.  Could see a triangle (wedge).