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Monday, March 14, 2011

Monday 3/14/11 wrap up

ES/SPX
Since the Major W1 top of Feb 20 the ES appears to have put in a Minor Wave "a" and "b" leg of the correction, with the "b" leg taking the shape of a triangle in the ES terminating on Mar 8.

ES hourly

5 waves can be counted as complete from the end of the triangle on Mar 8 into the the low last Friday.  It is thus possible to label that low as the end of Minor Wave "c" and declare the correction to be over.  However, if the long term count presented below is right, the ES is correcting against an almost eight month rally and has only retraced around 20% of that move.  So although it's certainly possible that prices will start a new rally sequence from here, it's not all that probable.  If we do resume the selling, likely targets are the .382 and .500 retrace levels at ES 1213 and ES 1173 respectively.  ES 1173 has a high probability as it marks the area of prior Intermediate and Minor Wave 4 lows.

ES daily

3 comments:

  1. That's some ES target Al. Gold & oil may be turning back up. How was Santa Fe? Did you go to the museum that had that huge Christmas scenes collection?

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  2. Hey guy - yes that would be a decent sell off in ES if we get there. I was long gold yesterday and got my teeth kicked in overnight, currently out but contemplating going short there.
    Santa Fe was great, only visited the Museum of Fine Arts (not worth the cost btw) so didn't see one with Christmas scenes. Did cruise up Canyon Road and visit about 30 art galleries, very interesting - some of what people consider to be art is just a joke in my book - I'm sure they're laughing all the way to the bank. Some was very interesting however.
    Been absolutely on the run since back - out of town tomorrow PM & Thur for business and then again on Sat for personal - been difficult to keep up with everything.
    Best to you!!

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