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Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Tuesday 3/29/11 wrap up

ES shook off yesterday's late selling and mounted a nice rally today.  If my bullish count is correct, we are in a sub-wave 5 to a Micro W3 of Minute W3 of Minor W1 - in other words, more upside ahead but probably a little choppy  as the ES completes a series of 4th & 5th waves.

ES - hourly


Gold
The bullish view on gold has it in a Minor Wave 5 (red) up from the late January lows, with a Minute W1 & W2 (green) complete by mid March and Minute W3 in progress.  Minor W1 occurred in 2009 and was around $325 in length, so Minor W5 could reach into the 1630 area from the Minor W4 low of 1309.

Gold - daily - bullish alternate

Gold-hourly

If the bullish count is correct then the selling of the last few days is just a speed bump and we should start moving steadily up fairly soon.

The bearish alternate has gold still working it's way through a Minor W4 correction that is taking the form of a flat.  In that correction waves "a" and "b" are complete and wave "c" is in it's early stages.  In this alternate wave "c" started at the high of last Thursday and has a downside target of at least the wave "a" low of late January at 1309.  At this point the bearish alternate is less credible because the pattern down from last Thursday looks much more corrective than impulsive.

Gold - daily - bearish alternate
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