Extremely frustrated with TOS today. Could not retrieve any charts this morning due to problems with their new software release, but price displays indicated that the ES was up strong overnight and trading very close to the Stop & Reverse point. As a result, the short ES's were covered a little after 8 AM CST at 1063.00, but a long position was not established because of the lack of charts. It would be like driving at 80 MPH on a moonless night on a country backroad with the headlights off - a little too dicey. At around 9 or 9:30 TOS finally came through with instructions as to how to restore a prior version of software with back up charts, but by then the market was a runaway and the best bet would be to wait for a pull back to go long IMO. Chasing markets can be a high risk move. As I write this the ES is trading @ 1080.50, so I figure that TOS owes me $850 per contract (1080.50 - 1063.00 x $50) of missed profit opportunity. Think they'll pony up?
The preferred bearish count here shows us in a Wave 2. It is rather awkward in some areas. In this count a .618 retracement of Wave 1 is right around ES 1093.00.
The bullish alternate is even more awkward on an hourly chart, because of the TOS problems my saved hourly chart of the bull count is inaccessible, but I do have a daily chart. It basically shows a zig zag Wave 2 ending at the ES 1037 lows with a Wave 3 in progress.
Apple Al,
ReplyDeleteWould you explain what you are seeing in order to take this short position now?
Sorry if I threw you for a loop, trade not based on Trend/Osc or Vindicator, purely speculative, short term overbought and looks like 5 waves up complete or close to complete, might just be a day trade
ReplyDeleteHa! No sweat. Just trying to call you out on discipline. The only thing I could think of was the move "seems" extended and hoping for a bad jobs number tomorrow. Not a great feeling being on the opposite sides of the trade but I should wait for a sell signal. Been long since right after Bernanke's speech on Friday. Monday and Tuesday were rough, but the trade luckily paid off yesterday and a little extra today.
ReplyDeleteGreat job on being long since last Friday. Yes, I broke discipline, usually doesn't work out well when I do that. Still PO'd over TOS issues yesterday.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm lucky, tomorrow's job report will create a little swoon in which to get a little more long. I have this one account which is a pain to manage because it requires settled funds so even though I covered my shorts perfectly last Friday, it only opened up again yesterday during the huge run up. It's hard enough trying to guess what tomorrow will do; let alone 3 days out when funds are settled.
ReplyDeleteThat would be a pain, would be hard to maneuver if you have to wait three days after closing a trade. Didn't know you managed accounts, we should talk some day.
ReplyDeleteShort ES's starting to pinch a little.