The fact that the 30 minute V Stoch showed a bullish divergence and the Buy line bottomed, both followed by a (very choppy) upmove indicate a more long term rally, but not that long term in all likelihood, maybe 1 to 3 days. The reason is this looks very much like a corrective sequence. On the ES all the moves since the low Sunday night are 3 wave formations, both up and down, with the exception of the rally from the lows of mid afternoon today which has not yet concluded. The SPX is much cleaner with an obvious 5 waves complete at this morning's lows (see 30 minute Vindicator chart above). Thus the odds are that wave 1 of C down is done and we are in wave 2. Wave 1 took a day on ES and around 3 on the SPX, so wave 2 shouldn't last more than a few days at most. I'm considering re-entering long ES overnight, I'll post in the "Current Position" section of this site if I do.
Nice to see we both made money in the markets on the upside today while 99% of all blogs where short. I closed all my hedges early at the open
ReplyDeletesold 1400 TZA @ 8.02 paid 7.55 +.47
sold 1000 VXX @ 33.06 paid 34.06 +1.00
sold 500 VXX @ 33,69 paid 33.19 + .50
and went long 1000 FAS @ 19.80 and closed that one at 3:56 at 20.94 +1.14
Tell you what, it's really a pain to be bullish on these blogs. I spend most of my time at Hot Option Babe and you can almost hear the boooos coming at you when you go long. Gotta go with what I'm seeing though, and long was the right play today. Really debating about re-entering long overnight, probably won't, the wave count is not all that clear. Glad you made money today, congrats.
ReplyDeleteThis is the thing, at HOB today, the host claimed that she re-loaded at the highs of the day at 10am. She was right for 60 minutes but the day is long and the markets soared to new highs way surpasing her supposed high of the day. She is probably very good in the long run. I don't know, but we need to control our emotions as to what we would like the market to do and what it is actually doing. This is a serious business, I can't trade on weeee waaaaa woooo feelings which she expresses alot. In the long run I think she is right that this thing is going down but.........
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