Went long ES today based on positive divergence in both 30 and 5 minute V Stoch as well as Buy line bottoming out in Buy/Sell Vindicator. Sold 1/2 of longs when 5 minute V Stoch went way overbought and started rolling over, unfortunately was stopped out of balance of longs at breakeven about 90 minutes later. Very choppy and see-saw today.
The fact that the 30 minute V Stoch showed a bullish divergence and the Buy line bottomed, both followed by a (very choppy) upmove indicate a more long term rally, but not that long term in all likelihood, maybe 1 to 3 days. The reason is this looks very much like a corrective sequence. On the ES all the moves since the low Sunday night are 3 wave formations, both up and down, with the exception of the rally from the lows of mid afternoon today which has not yet concluded. The SPX is much cleaner with an obvious 5 waves complete at this morning's lows (see 30 minute Vindicator chart above). Thus the odds are that wave 1 of C down is done and we are in wave 2. Wave 1 took a day on ES and around 3 on the SPX, so wave 2 shouldn't last more than a few days at most. I'm considering re-entering long ES overnight, I'll post in the "Current Position" section of this site if I do.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
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