Vindicator Buy line still above Sell line, so the indication there is bullish.
I've not been happy with my ES trading since I began basing it on the Vindicator so I'm reverting to my old tried and true system. I plan on using the Vindicator as a pyramiding tool, i.e. will use it to add to base positions established by the older system. The old system is a relatively simple one from the standpoint of TA, it's based on trendlines and another proprietary indicator called the Dynamic Oscillator. The Dynamic Oscillator is essentially a price momentum study that adjusts for perceived time cycles. It sounds more complicated than it is, but it is proprietary. Anyway, the system has a number of trading rules which won't be outlined here in their entirety due to time constraints, at some point I'll put them up in a sidebar. The basic entry/exit points require a break in an established trendline accompanied by an appropriate move out of an overbought/oversold situation on the Oscillator. The system, if the trading rules are adhered to, runs about 58% winners to losers, but makes money because it cuts losses short and lets profits run. It IS NOT a day trade system, I've held a base position for as long as six weeks with this approach.
Went long last night based on this system:
We broke above the down trend line from last Monday's highs about mid afternoon Friday, which is the first condition for an entry point. The second condition was met last night when the Dyn Osc (Dynamic Oscillator) moved above a reading of 20.0 from an oversold condition, at which point a long position was established. Initial Stop Loss in the system is set at 1 daily ATR from entry, ES ATR as of Friday was 24.00, so with a long entry @ 1077.00 the stop loss is set at 1053.00.
Al, I am back from the Bahamas. Have to enjoy the money we make sometimes. I like the probabilities on your new method. 58% is good if we manage to limit our losses on the other 42%.
ReplyDeleteAl de pomme, personally found the (30min) Vindicator useful but also excited to hear more about your previous system. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteAnd naturally on reverting to the old system the first trade is a loss -
ReplyDeleteGlad you enjoyed your vacation - 1st trade on reverting to old system is (of course) a loss, should have known
ReplyDelete1st trade doesn't count, lets give it a chance. 3-4 bad trades in a row we will get worried. It's hard to have systems when all the action takes place overnight and we wake up to huge gaps.
ReplyDeleteActually the rules of the system has stop losses as STOP and REVERSE, which means (if I had followed the rules) I would now be short @ 1053.00. I chose to ignore that rule on this 1st trade for reasons that now seem fuzzy headed
ReplyDelete