Monday 6/21/10 wrap up

This morning we got the final push envisioned in the weekend update and the SPX/ES promptly and obediently rolled over and dived.  Looks like the end of a Wave C or 3 today, which one remains to be seen.  Trendlines are important in my analysis, on the chart note the ascending trendline from the 6/8 lows.  A close below that trendline will put us in near term bear mode.

However, the 30 minute V Stoch bottomed and curled up today which is the first part of a buy signal, if the SPX breaks above the downtrend line from this morning's highs then the buy signal is confirmed.  So which will it be? Long or short?  Going to wait for a trendline break one way or the other to decide. 

Two interesting sidebars: first, for all the price action today volume was very weak; second, the last five closes on the ES have all been within a couple points of each other and the 200 day MA.   So in the final analysis we've made very little net progress in either direction for a week now.  Summer doldrums?