Sunday, February 28, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Let's get our bearings
Today is Saturday and I had planned a lengthy post showing longer term perspectives. However I got sidetracked on another project and the clock is running out. Anyway, the exercise would be sort of like reinventing the wheel, there are some excellent analysts out there who would echo my viewpoints. Two that I pay particular attention to are:
Tony Caldaerow
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
Daneric
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Caldaroew was long term bearish and has swung to bullish in the last month or so. Daneric has been bearish and remains in that camp. As usual, there are very convincing arguments on both sides of the coin.
My take is that we are in fact at an extremely critical juncture and this thing could easily swing one way or another over the next month or two, and whichever way we swing is going to win the longer term argument. I lean more towards the bullish camp based on economic and political fundamentals. I know the argument that you can't trust government economic reports, but it is apparent that the bottom of the crisis (for now) is past us. Also, it is an election year, and the Feds will be getting pushed HARD to dress things up.
For trading purposes however I'm very nervous about the long position established Friday AM. For one thing I did a lousy job on timing the trade (should have had a little more patience, could have entered at a much better level). For another, some of the technical work I do is indicating a very short term (1 or 2 day) top as of the close Friday. I'm going to chew on it some more, but I may go to cash tomorrow evening with a buy on stop order in place overnight.
Tony Caldaerow
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
Daneric
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Caldaroew was long term bearish and has swung to bullish in the last month or so. Daneric has been bearish and remains in that camp. As usual, there are very convincing arguments on both sides of the coin.
My take is that we are in fact at an extremely critical juncture and this thing could easily swing one way or another over the next month or two, and whichever way we swing is going to win the longer term argument. I lean more towards the bullish camp based on economic and political fundamentals. I know the argument that you can't trust government economic reports, but it is apparent that the bottom of the crisis (for now) is past us. Also, it is an election year, and the Feds will be getting pushed HARD to dress things up.
For trading purposes however I'm very nervous about the long position established Friday AM. For one thing I did a lousy job on timing the trade (should have had a little more patience, could have entered at a much better level). For another, some of the technical work I do is indicating a very short term (1 or 2 day) top as of the close Friday. I'm going to chew on it some more, but I may go to cash tomorrow evening with a buy on stop order in place overnight.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Treading Water
Pretty much sideways today except for a little drop this morning from which the ES recovered to close marginally up. Pretty sloppy and choppy, so very much corrective. Monday should be an up day.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Go Long or be Wrong
Things sure swung around today, covered short ES for loss after hours. What was shaping up to be a nice impulse down turned out to be the C wave in a zig-zag correction to all appearances, with the C wave being an ending diagonal.
The break over the trendline at end of day was accompanied by a buy signal in my momentum indicator, so I'm looking for a spot to go long ES.
From a longer term perspective, there are at least three very valid EW counts that could be applied here. If time permits I'll lay those out over the weekend. But bottom line is the move off today's lows is clearly impulsive and was accompanied by a buy signal in my system, so a long trade is dictated at the best opportunity. Plan is to go long on a pullback with a stop at or below today's low of ES 1085.75. The one thing that is of concern is the possibility that what we're seeing is a running flat, where "B" above is actually "a", "C" is actually "b", and we're in the final "c" leg right now. This would mean hard down in the immediate offing. So if a long trade is executed, the stop needs to be a stop & reverse.
From a longer term perspective, there are at least three very valid EW counts that could be applied here. If time permits I'll lay those out over the weekend. But bottom line is the move off today's lows is clearly impulsive and was accompanied by a buy signal in my system, so a long trade is dictated at the best opportunity. Plan is to go long on a pullback with a stop at or below today's low of ES 1085.75. The one thing that is of concern is the possibility that what we're seeing is a running flat, where "B" above is actually "a", "C" is actually "b", and we're in the final "c" leg right now. This would mean hard down in the immediate offing. So if a long trade is executed, the stop needs to be a stop & reverse.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
