tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32602198846361278782024-03-14T01:00:54.384-05:00Willow Tree TradingApple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.comBlogger768125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-71134397390574067932023-05-24T11:11:00.000-05:002023-05-24T11:11:34.802-05:00Update 5/24/23<p>In England for a week visiting one of my brothers - flew in on Saturday - naturally the market has shook itself out of its recent slumber. Looks like we're heading down for now.</p><p>NOT TRADING ADVICE</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimUfgW0I19T9o6UyH_s1CqAq6HZjWckILxgvw5SoC5QsQIhYsIghrLRJ0k4er_ur8J1uW_6eo7HvlS0cELR1PkYD5ZkgEDP_cPepL1ABWhtAT7Vzs2kMieGImX5ydh5s4-Ip1CHCqG-CJZZUk-6HVEJLuF2VY7X8FbzTh47NeAeGAorMfvbr3xJjEKvw/s1536/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1536" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimUfgW0I19T9o6UyH_s1CqAq6HZjWckILxgvw5SoC5QsQIhYsIghrLRJ0k4er_ur8J1uW_6eo7HvlS0cELR1PkYD5ZkgEDP_cPepL1ABWhtAT7Vzs2kMieGImX5ydh5s4-Ip1CHCqG-CJZZUk-6HVEJLuF2VY7X8FbzTh47NeAeGAorMfvbr3xJjEKvw/w640-h326/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_sSQ3mb9WB3vQy5Rt9zPD3W-IvgHRUhtYwFdR-IR9ACdQ9angnlqzKYMX8H8eVuseptyVCeP2iEa8WXDf5E2WXfTi58Us6yvuZyiPzpkPIxqf61qZsvigb3faDqq8spYQIIr5EtfVR-IRLxTj1qL-2TL8q0cuJKMooEwD2JUPlqRLtO-nzmbwL5viFg/s1536/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1536" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_sSQ3mb9WB3vQy5Rt9zPD3W-IvgHRUhtYwFdR-IR9ACdQ9angnlqzKYMX8H8eVuseptyVCeP2iEa8WXDf5E2WXfTi58Us6yvuZyiPzpkPIxqf61qZsvigb3faDqq8spYQIIr5EtfVR-IRLxTj1qL-2TL8q0cuJKMooEwD2JUPlqRLtO-nzmbwL5viFg/w640-h326/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7PZ7cuJFGABsfrVeo2MsbEvhX28A-TFM31wuidNY1DqBxKXflkODvO9-BTdQq2IJZ3jFVuDZoCHEOjA6HTp5Ky9eNM6hXA0JYlqVxJJNWXNDY2WPHZw7NM1gB69KsTyNeFojLCiDwzGdjdY6IJ8_A2sQc3hnsnntm7qNql6MgXypriCMZCWoT11hDDQ/s1536/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="780" data-original-width="1536" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7PZ7cuJFGABsfrVeo2MsbEvhX28A-TFM31wuidNY1DqBxKXflkODvO9-BTdQq2IJZ3jFVuDZoCHEOjA6HTp5Ky9eNM6hXA0JYlqVxJJNWXNDY2WPHZw7NM1gB69KsTyNeFojLCiDwzGdjdY6IJ8_A2sQc3hnsnntm7qNql6MgXypriCMZCWoT11hDDQ/w640-h326/2023-05-24-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /> <br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-54356096246215221612023-05-08T16:38:00.001-05:002023-05-08T16:38:45.294-05:00UPdate 5/8/23<p>Momentum based buy signals in the ES/SPX on Friday were confirmed in the NYA today.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMtaqVa06odt3SyjxGC8hwrEAFm0kEyP14ipm8wEdV2A7cJ-rioAE9GIFqqLWvtLfJytFtzJqjsmFTGHoafT77p2qm1R75LHOCar0bC4X_TWLQhYUo6AbvthPyOGezi0hrSySxUQFCZCggUAe2LHu8I6a4hZAbCGc_B7g0civXm5WmOv1dmZ80oc7rXw/s1920/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMtaqVa06odt3SyjxGC8hwrEAFm0kEyP14ipm8wEdV2A7cJ-rioAE9GIFqqLWvtLfJytFtzJqjsmFTGHoafT77p2qm1R75LHOCar0bC4X_TWLQhYUo6AbvthPyOGezi0hrSySxUQFCZCggUAe2LHu8I6a4hZAbCGc_B7g0civXm5WmOv1dmZ80oc7rXw/w640-h332/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMAAYzIrp7TOYOZOVfuqKWyPTKMY76YUSZPqS3P1SL9v5BdmByxpYHLVb-5TBaqi891F_sl4rpbubm27jEVIsKXb1zMazWLTKxW-csPR8aA-qiXxdEUOemWQ5j5g8KG-Iqh1jnOFk-pEIbhVOjG72Zn6znPRaDopMjJgF59aTLUCRB9OVdb4ep5K3Yeg/s1920/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMAAYzIrp7TOYOZOVfuqKWyPTKMY76YUSZPqS3P1SL9v5BdmByxpYHLVb-5TBaqi891F_sl4rpbubm27jEVIsKXb1zMazWLTKxW-csPR8aA-qiXxdEUOemWQ5j5g8KG-Iqh1jnOFk-pEIbhVOjG72Zn6znPRaDopMjJgF59aTLUCRB9OVdb4ep5K3Yeg/w640-h332/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYpFvvJknwTaIpj7asfiTEIdyHxZnbFD4PT7b-XdNTCxs6OrBx5TKqcxu-JHWzD9cbDY7kI9wLb8OK9C7uXdTzIK-L_-XiS1UT6EMaFOHUNjjcVpAUVy4-D2WcGXRbpvYR5wyxA2NTI6RAHSav3CUcVJJx7_uVq6N90ORpYVAmntKHWLAgWDZkPSa5EA/s1920/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYpFvvJknwTaIpj7asfiTEIdyHxZnbFD4PT7b-XdNTCxs6OrBx5TKqcxu-JHWzD9cbDY7kI9wLb8OK9C7uXdTzIK-L_-XiS1UT6EMaFOHUNjjcVpAUVy4-D2WcGXRbpvYR5wyxA2NTI6RAHSav3CUcVJJx7_uVq6N90ORpYVAmntKHWLAgWDZkPSa5EA/w640-h332/2023-05-08-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>NOT TRADING ADVICE </b><br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-91863931718977242023-04-20T16:27:00.004-05:002023-04-20T16:27:58.443-05:00Update 4/20/23<p> Once again we have sell signals in the daily ES/SPX, but this time they are also accompanied by a sell signal in the NYA:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7AVwaoxE5RP03QlzeBpuDecXGG4bQ6OD-An4OArAW2sB2djjz_zR4OIrtQqVJfOrAkX3g-BGyr3U8BFH9eYqHzCwypDz4zy21AVWr3q0yZPDFyDJIaYKxL2oJvKrEJoBaCkj2fFHiKhfpZbXwo5o7Cr6SbtuCNHAFteL0yXjX_5dfc7lqf0UF1veY8g/s1920/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7AVwaoxE5RP03QlzeBpuDecXGG4bQ6OD-An4OArAW2sB2djjz_zR4OIrtQqVJfOrAkX3g-BGyr3U8BFH9eYqHzCwypDz4zy21AVWr3q0yZPDFyDJIaYKxL2oJvKrEJoBaCkj2fFHiKhfpZbXwo5o7Cr6SbtuCNHAFteL0yXjX_5dfc7lqf0UF1veY8g/w640-h332/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgae9zyYaEVEH_T5hJ3wXOe0nlz74PDNA0u8CU-U66cpt8-geS0uQVUAaTplk2VxXVVZ_Wdf3Yz9JceBrDSTsEUydgkmJAKQ4-LIBOMhEt3i7eEVFj6qIDIt54SxEwkfNN_QvEPazgKDsiSLG4qQGR_m45zg1Ut5Ykvp3OU-KnA1ZOggDZ7HAySaBYi3A/s1920/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgae9zyYaEVEH_T5hJ3wXOe0nlz74PDNA0u8CU-U66cpt8-geS0uQVUAaTplk2VxXVVZ_Wdf3Yz9JceBrDSTsEUydgkmJAKQ4-LIBOMhEt3i7eEVFj6qIDIt54SxEwkfNN_QvEPazgKDsiSLG4qQGR_m45zg1Ut5Ykvp3OU-KnA1ZOggDZ7HAySaBYi3A/w640-h332/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUQSgCjlbt4tCAZsIyq3mp63WLbquPkuB8wArMFbDVOQRRE4k7SScFW88Mz41RLRXPPCllg4OXY9KCRP33bu5HrUShkvIUDE2RzWkAwBnSrZvSCeyPRD0SdObdChrjmQz_kQU_5m9wOOoZI7lZ2iWowLNmiRzdOMEG9iQVmkLyjvoq7ls6qqh1WxchNA/s1920/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUQSgCjlbt4tCAZsIyq3mp63WLbquPkuB8wArMFbDVOQRRE4k7SScFW88Mz41RLRXPPCllg4OXY9KCRP33bu5HrUShkvIUDE2RzWkAwBnSrZvSCeyPRD0SdObdChrjmQz_kQU_5m9wOOoZI7lZ2iWowLNmiRzdOMEG9iQVmkLyjvoq7ls6qqh1WxchNA/w640-h332/2023-04-20-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The Elliott Wave count is pretty muddy right here so these are not high confidence sell signals,</p><p>NOT TRADING ADVICE</p><p><br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-63757509792602172212023-04-13T17:00:00.004-05:002023-04-13T17:00:50.566-05:00Update 4/13/23<p> Yesterdays sell signal in the daily ES and SPX charts - which was not confirmed in the NYA - has been negated with today's rally. This has been a tough market to analyze and trade.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCijhxq5qJJrzMIS_aF0cLPGrOI3JsszonfagL6v3o0PKG19PzGHodAG3yThMkg7-At6u6K1vocnfoe5c9o6ppt-FXHAto-v36xUuNNzdJfDWH2nupIB0Ktv6Y0jKp_ZWFPWkKw4LMr0WDFzIH4qAVKX83XM6TyPJQ4P-9JD8YHxx6Z7tedwMizasZ_A/s1920/2023-04-13-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCijhxq5qJJrzMIS_aF0cLPGrOI3JsszonfagL6v3o0PKG19PzGHodAG3yThMkg7-At6u6K1vocnfoe5c9o6ppt-FXHAto-v36xUuNNzdJfDWH2nupIB0Ktv6Y0jKp_ZWFPWkKw4LMr0WDFzIH4qAVKX83XM6TyPJQ4P-9JD8YHxx6Z7tedwMizasZ_A/w640-h332/2023-04-13-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLDLahkrYzJZ7BkCr2jUye6tXYGe9FPVr4ZaHHRchWnC5aGLhfBsP68gFboqTf269oJyz2HczqNObkF8Z4VHSshFJphhIupZz8R9nK8dzydHXhOFVXkDnJmX7k7L0C9sUF2Ojzb1l0hmTi0SPaSr312uGbZ6lF18YGF1hKKVfd2NAx_1VPtCD1Yctmrw/s1920/2023-04-13-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLDLahkrYzJZ7BkCr2jUye6tXYGe9FPVr4ZaHHRchWnC5aGLhfBsP68gFboqTf269oJyz2HczqNObkF8Z4VHSshFJphhIupZz8R9nK8dzydHXhOFVXkDnJmX7k7L0C9sUF2Ojzb1l0hmTi0SPaSr312uGbZ6lF18YGF1hKKVfd2NAx_1VPtCD1Yctmrw/w640-h332/2023-04-13-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-5473736890276732062023-04-12T16:58:00.001-05:002023-04-13T17:01:25.071-05:00Update 4/12/23<p> ES/SPX are showing a sell signal on the daily charts but that is not confirmed in the NYA</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzpMOu2Mpz9UC8D1X8zxgkEd4UA80GZbdzKI1JVui41XWTpPbFSKb5AefSau-hCDWN-IddxyDwzoWAMg4jED4CH79nt3H23CgFRXIi-IpyGXN0hecsMUkXMqwHluR7nFgiSqGwwOWFkEgCN8TMb2Cq1sqVmontlNROgH2cfzD40jkU1EzL-YuDBOciBg/s1920/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzpMOu2Mpz9UC8D1X8zxgkEd4UA80GZbdzKI1JVui41XWTpPbFSKb5AefSau-hCDWN-IddxyDwzoWAMg4jED4CH79nt3H23CgFRXIi-IpyGXN0hecsMUkXMqwHluR7nFgiSqGwwOWFkEgCN8TMb2Cq1sqVmontlNROgH2cfzD40jkU1EzL-YuDBOciBg/w640-h332/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSes10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik_XjDjAT7YZyGXot0Ncx9O1GH5IEkp15X0BI5E-uFHhUn2Tj9XZA84WbMSgYE_XxARlvebU6p-_Ih_3VpCUaETdx8u1GwmHIsIFuq5Ktq96uCuNfe4W6TdcQmW0y6IUdn04dFksnITcZ7AgDsd7LOa1KHbrDSjLhDETluCMtYsI_O4Ex8X_3huDWIBA/s1920/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik_XjDjAT7YZyGXot0Ncx9O1GH5IEkp15X0BI5E-uFHhUn2Tj9XZA84WbMSgYE_XxARlvebU6p-_Ih_3VpCUaETdx8u1GwmHIsIFuq5Ktq96uCuNfe4W6TdcQmW0y6IUdn04dFksnITcZ7AgDsd7LOa1KHbrDSjLhDETluCMtYsI_O4Ex8X_3huDWIBA/w640-h332/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSspx10.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbNa5cRHmnMx51jpBjmYfrRZkkWNhw258P-DKEY6pT1jXeyYNp-SYtEipTbjePyrjC5Qn4T1drS_5SJrSs_k56EUqlCwgnl7jWvRwuw02mPnbFTKzFxwrIgo-vx-nhLSXEkaQxS73AYyGPZArRbw9MuU4wnO1vdOGA8cUf-Js_OCLdMr1eiM47TN6Z9w/s1920/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbNa5cRHmnMx51jpBjmYfrRZkkWNhw258P-DKEY6pT1jXeyYNp-SYtEipTbjePyrjC5Qn4T1drS_5SJrSs_k56EUqlCwgnl7jWvRwuw02mPnbFTKzFxwrIgo-vx-nhLSXEkaQxS73AYyGPZArRbw9MuU4wnO1vdOGA8cUf-Js_OCLdMr1eiM47TN6Z9w/w640-h332/2023-04-12-TOS_CHARTSny10.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b><u>NOT TRADING ADVICE</u></b><br /></p><p><br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-11500479088563724972023-04-02T14:27:00.000-05:002023-04-02T14:27:32.671-05:00UPDATE 3/31/23<p>NY weekly chart has confirmed an intermediate term bull signal first indicated on the weekly ES chart week of 3/24:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5ifWe-BD1dbrgzy84q8l6lMWZCQK5XOzJV3tuY0CZJ_5UNXEqf5NF9hMB31PcdF_SOo9csdLl85MakQmDa4_GHrYIuidraJi0xIFQzRbhsfEVVeMO6VwjicbIvrhB3gFNKUV-l1GgyQZEODulrGDiIJDYoMZwQ3PplKquYxJsAC_byMRbiUVX9gZvbw/s1920/2023-04-02-TOS_CHARTSesw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5ifWe-BD1dbrgzy84q8l6lMWZCQK5XOzJV3tuY0CZJ_5UNXEqf5NF9hMB31PcdF_SOo9csdLl85MakQmDa4_GHrYIuidraJi0xIFQzRbhsfEVVeMO6VwjicbIvrhB3gFNKUV-l1GgyQZEODulrGDiIJDYoMZwQ3PplKquYxJsAC_byMRbiUVX9gZvbw/w640-h332/2023-04-02-TOS_CHARTSesw.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCfA8j2tiJRqXxHZ2gRwljr4zvSJb0WoMhw7bDM03Yp9mQHXfvv5rZ3Fw83tayhCSAEOX_DMa6rsg9YXq1j7fwNlKKoTY3qEPdBCwvhgQWKbcTM48oSQqL8dh9Z2F454pYMW8T8lwdYV1TipqwUn0PYcZXRjRpSntDppZSQTEzSWHtDpOTTj0DlAwmKQ/s1920/2023-04-02-TOS_CHARTSnyw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1920" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCfA8j2tiJRqXxHZ2gRwljr4zvSJb0WoMhw7bDM03Yp9mQHXfvv5rZ3Fw83tayhCSAEOX_DMa6rsg9YXq1j7fwNlKKoTY3qEPdBCwvhgQWKbcTM48oSQqL8dh9Z2F454pYMW8T8lwdYV1TipqwUn0PYcZXRjRpSntDppZSQTEzSWHtDpOTTj0DlAwmKQ/w640-h332/2023-04-02-TOS_CHARTSnyw.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b><u>NOT TRADING ADVICE</u></b><br /></p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-29694937145986952432023-03-31T08:14:00.000-05:002023-03-31T08:14:48.784-05:00Update 3/31/23<div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b><u>MARKET TRENDS</u><br /></b></h2></div><div><b>EQUITY OSCILLATOR - DAILY<b> </b></b></div><div><b><b>UP</b></b><b><b> </b></b>f/Mar 15 - signal Mar 29<b><b> <br /></b></b></div><div><b><b> </b></b></div><div><b><b>was DOWN </b></b>f/Feb 1 - signal Feb 6 <br /></div><div><b><b> </b></b></div><div>Charts and description <a href="http://wttchartses.blogspot.com/2012/07/nya-als-indicators.html">here</a></div><b><br />==============================</b><b><br /></b><div><b>EQUITY OSCILLATOR - INTRADAY</b> <span> <b> </b></span></div><div><span><b>UP </b>f/Mar 24 - signal Mar 24 <b><br /></b></span></div><div><b> <br /></b></div><div><b>ES OSCILLATO</b><b>R - INTRAD</b><b>AY<span> </span></b><b><span> </span></b><span><b> </b></span></div><div><span><b>UP </b>f/Mar 28 - signal Mar 28<b> <br /></b></span></div><div><span><b> </b></span></div><div><span><b>DOWN </b>f/Mar 30 - signal Mar 30 -<b> negated<br /></b></span></div><div><b> </b></div>Charts and description <a href="http://wttchartses.blogspot.com/2011/05/es-current-trend-hourly.html">here</a><br /><br />=================================<p> </p>Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-42992844929188993272018-04-22T12:30:00.002-05:002018-04-22T12:30:36.584-05:00Sunday, 4/22/18 updateThe bull market of 2016-17 has obviously gone bye-bye since January's peak prices. There's an unanswered question here concerning the potential severity of the current bear market. In the ES/SPX there are two valid long term Elliott count alternates which portend significant differences in bear market possibilities.<br />
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The difference between the two is in the analysis of the 2010 to 2011 price pattern. The first possibility is that Primary W II in 2010 was a simple zig-zag which only lasted a few months from the Primary W I peak in late April, 2010 to an eventual low in early July, 2010. That low marked the start of a 7 1/2 year extended Primary W III which peaked this January. In this context we are now seeing Primary W IV unfold, and that wave should be wrapping up by the end of the year and be limited in price damage - at least as compares to the 2nd alternate described later. And of course another bull market in the form of Primary W V should ensue.<br />
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<u><b>Alternate #1</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GyOtHUljBMw/WturL4K-87I/AAAAAAAAh4k/OTL-iJaiXKklDBRRBp5mGWE615vGaXkMACLcBGAs/s1600/2018-04-21-TOS_CHARTSespw1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GyOtHUljBMw/WturL4K-87I/AAAAAAAAh4k/OTL-iJaiXKklDBRRBp5mGWE615vGaXkMACLcBGAs/s640/2018-04-21-TOS_CHARTSespw1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The second possibility is that Primary W II was a running flat which didn't conclude until the lows of early October, 2011. Following that the market put in Primary Waves III, IV and V into this January's top. This means that the January top is the culmination of a nine year bull market that started at the March, 2009 lows. As such the current bear market could last much longer and reach far deeper than in the 1st alternate. </div>
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<u><b>Alternate #2</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IZ8-lO2oFtg/WtusH5tYx5I/AAAAAAAAh4s/-Pa2M7dNDpUHeILWfwHTgCA5reGHHQskgCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-04-21-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IZ8-lO2oFtg/WtusH5tYx5I/AAAAAAAAh4s/-Pa2M7dNDpUHeILWfwHTgCA5reGHHQskgCLcBGAs/s640/2018-04-21-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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There is some basis for favoring the 2nd alternate in terms of the financial environment. Up until last fall the period from March, 2009 forward was notable for the multiple Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing programs. These programs supplied extraordinary financial liquidity to US markets and arguably fueled the bull. Last fall the Fed began reversing that liquidity flow in an effort to unwind it's bloated balance sheet. Thus not only is the fuel no longer being supplied, it's actually being siphoned out. So an EW count showing a completed move starting in 2009 and ending this January ties right in. <br />
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> </div>
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-29156286224025595772018-03-22T17:28:00.000-05:002018-03-22T17:28:36.484-05:00Thursday, 3/22/18 updateHaven't posted for a while, but this is a juncture worth noting. The ES is at an important support level - if prices drop through this area in a sustained move the bottom could really fall out.<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-slRdYIykY20/WrQt1vE2tDI/AAAAAAAAhoU/pyqwMg-wk6g12Ub4dDV8xQdXcVB085clACLcBGAs/s1600/2018-03-22-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-slRdYIykY20/WrQt1vE2tDI/AAAAAAAAhoU/pyqwMg-wk6g12Ub4dDV8xQdXcVB085clACLcBGAs/s640/2018-03-22-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-45478475437534279112018-01-21T15:08:00.001-06:002018-01-22T08:30:35.308-06:00Sunday, 1/21/18 updateThe rip your face off rally in the ES/SPX the first two weeks of the month has dictated a revision in the EW count from last August's lows:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ypFeG6rFYZg/WmUBAGtAaYI/AAAAAAAAhH4/CvvOe54emQwdpYhqLRHAKlFqdyvptNFfACLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-21-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ypFeG6rFYZg/WmUBAGtAaYI/AAAAAAAAhH4/CvvOe54emQwdpYhqLRHAKlFqdyvptNFfACLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-21-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yEA0mLlSk28/WmUBGyYxuTI/AAAAAAAAhH8/y_NRQPpnPTsKatK8DSrUCZWlTZg2H-CjQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-21-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yEA0mLlSk28/WmUBGyYxuTI/AAAAAAAAhH8/y_NRQPpnPTsKatK8DSrUCZWlTZg2H-CjQCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-21-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-50610732367010071092018-01-15T15:09:00.001-06:002018-01-15T15:09:05.353-06:00Monday, 1/15/18 updateES/SPX has certainly been parabolic as can be seen on the weekly chart:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JyT06FIBrAo/Wl0VuF_kL1I/AAAAAAAAhEc/xFR3SfYkRbY4gRfZOnziIe0nitI3TiM5QCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-15-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="1264" height="466" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JyT06FIBrAo/Wl0VuF_kL1I/AAAAAAAAhEc/xFR3SfYkRbY4gRfZOnziIe0nitI3TiM5QCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-15-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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It may make more sense to look at the long term picture using a chart on a log scale:<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yjtgfZTXTiw/Wl0X6ltN1KI/AAAAAAAAhEo/8ve8M2ggHTM3LizqqtXMo_2gt_UE06VoQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-15-TOS_CHARTSespwlog.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="1264" height="466" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yjtgfZTXTiw/Wl0X6ltN1KI/AAAAAAAAhEo/8ve8M2ggHTM3LizqqtXMo_2gt_UE06VoQCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-15-TOS_CHARTSespwlog.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-3112211120224280822018-01-06T16:23:00.000-06:002018-01-06T20:39:24.061-06:00Saturday, 1/6/18 updateThe ES/SPX is on a trajectory of which any rocket scientist would be proud. And there's no sign of running out of fuel yet. Where the top might be is anyone's guess.<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RE69azi_5kQ/WlFLYI7a9QI/AAAAAAAAhAs/RSpM7YIj2XshHTGR681NcCS9PjqcdIDPgCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RE69azi_5kQ/WlFLYI7a9QI/AAAAAAAAhAs/RSpM7YIj2XshHTGR681NcCS9PjqcdIDPgCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--eLnEzP62cQ/WlFLqiXPBrI/AAAAAAAAhAw/Le-ctEQaM2Udp25Nxyhyp5wgOWgOk1dFACLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--eLnEzP62cQ/WlFLqiXPBrI/AAAAAAAAhAw/Le-ctEQaM2Udp25Nxyhyp5wgOWgOk1dFACLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><b>ALTERNATE</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-p1g1esSaJmE/WlFL4DmNgvI/AAAAAAAAhA0/DWjZ5TlyVQ0MnTFPG31pJT0aN0dNcxHOwCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-p1g1esSaJmE/WlFL4DmNgvI/AAAAAAAAhA0/DWjZ5TlyVQ0MnTFPG31pJT0aN0dNcxHOwCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-06-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> </div>
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-37975895413470824102018-01-01T16:39:00.002-06:002018-01-01T16:39:27.091-06:00Happy New Year!! update 1/1/18The pattern in the ES over the holiday weeks can be counted in two different ways. 1st possibility is that of a 4th wave triangle leading into a quick thrust of a 5th wave on Friday followed by the 1st leg of a correction:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nazx1wgf4Zg/Wkq0gtwrOZI/AAAAAAAAg8s/8EIDGE9GPBst7VC-eftYc6JoKAesF3poQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSesph2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nazx1wgf4Zg/Wkq0gtwrOZI/AAAAAAAAg8s/8EIDGE9GPBst7VC-eftYc6JoKAesF3poQCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSesph2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This would portend more corrective activity over the coming days.<br />
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The 2nd possibility is that of a flat style correction with Friday's selling being the "c" - and thus last - wave of that pattern:<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9bM6Ny01UTU/Wkq0XT_lNwI/AAAAAAAAg8o/cMWL0B64dpA8HsfmvzLGVwSfv9yJ7Im5gCEwYBhgL/s1600/2017-12-30-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9bM6Ny01UTU/Wkq0XT_lNwI/AAAAAAAAg8o/cMWL0B64dpA8HsfmvzLGVwSfv9yJ7Im5gCEwYBhgL/s640/2017-12-30-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This would mean a quick conclusion to the selling (if it's not already done) and another ramp up almost immediately. This alternate is the higher probability IMO.<br />
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From a longer term perspective the preferred count is showing a major top in the near future:<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-B9iDLY1329Q/Wkq1yenNvzI/AAAAAAAAg84/k3Pc_T_CI-cEozs9s1loaT5XN35-wnz5ACLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSespw1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-B9iDLY1329Q/Wkq1yenNvzI/AAAAAAAAg84/k3Pc_T_CI-cEozs9s1loaT5XN35-wnz5ACLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSespw1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This count has the ES in Intermediate W5 (purple) of Major W5 (blue) of Primary W III, with Primary W III being a bull market that commenced in 2010 and Major W5 being the bull market of the last 2 years - if true, a significant juncture.<br />
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However, the parabolic rise of recent months is more typical of a 3rd wave rather than a 5th wave as labeled above. So the thought is that the pattern from early 2016 thru mid 2017 is a series of nested 1st & 2nd waves with the run up from August thru now being the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave - i.e. the point of maximum acceleration:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9LOVDfuh3IQ/Wkq3y3fXjQI/AAAAAAAAg9E/x-T8y236dWsK-ySdVs1Tw7NAuU0rWQtaQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9LOVDfuh3IQ/Wkq3y3fXjQI/AAAAAAAAg9E/x-T8y236dWsK-ySdVs1Tw7NAuU0rWQtaQCLcBGAs/s640/2018-01-01-TOS_CHARTSespw2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This count has to be given serious consideration - if for no other reason than that there have been no serious signs of topping action as of yet.<br />
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-10334606699307451252017-12-25T15:29:00.001-06:002017-12-25T15:29:23.637-06:00Merry Christmas!! update 12/25/17Best guess count:<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dKHclCCwtQg/WkFs2YnXyCI/AAAAAAAAg5g/NTMR7-e3B0IFrskPCwPO1Omc9uhnBW0OwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-24-TOS_CHARTSesph2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dKHclCCwtQg/WkFs2YnXyCI/AAAAAAAAg5g/NTMR7-e3B0IFrskPCwPO1Omc9uhnBW0OwCLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-24-TOS_CHARTSesph2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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And the alternate:<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rHsAOKfPxUk/WkFtHAIhikI/AAAAAAAAg5k/O_Lu9jHGyv0PTkbUa-934JRMURMt0glxACLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-25-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rHsAOKfPxUk/WkFtHAIhikI/AAAAAAAAg5k/O_Lu9jHGyv0PTkbUa-934JRMURMt0glxACLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-25-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-21014582000356455042017-12-16T16:17:00.001-06:002017-12-16T16:18:52.792-06:00Saturday, 12/16/17 updateAnd the beat goes on.<br />
When looking at the below charts understand that we are still in a bull market which shows no notable signs of slowing down as of yet. Although the current count has the ES approaching a significant top it's not there yet, and any of these bull waves could extend to much higher levels than indicated. So the levels indicated in the charts are tentative, or better yet, tenuous.<br />
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There is the possibility of resistance at ES 2697.50 for the rally that started Thursday evening.<br />
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Short term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X-1BhnJIkns/WjWa1d4DVQI/AAAAAAAAg2Q/Pmd5HWaT-jc-yLSuThhMF2RnpYydLR1WgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X-1BhnJIkns/WjWa1d4DVQI/AAAAAAAAg2Q/Pmd5HWaT-jc-yLSuThhMF2RnpYydLR1WgCLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Intermediate term:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zXdWlpf1MD4/WjWbBtwaYVI/AAAAAAAAg2U/IxOGI_kWXUcdzkFarY-ITs1XuvA2z20sgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zXdWlpf1MD4/WjWbBtwaYVI/AAAAAAAAg2U/IxOGI_kWXUcdzkFarY-ITs1XuvA2z20sgCLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Long term:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vG2y61X6vOc/WjWbPhSlxmI/AAAAAAAAg2Y/mHxFuuPZJUUcmkLhsAwxVZ1_vDXYLrdQwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vG2y61X6vOc/WjWbPhSlxmI/AAAAAAAAg2Y/mHxFuuPZJUUcmkLhsAwxVZ1_vDXYLrdQwCLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-16-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-71113068895330656912017-12-03T18:41:00.000-06:002017-12-03T18:41:34.110-06:00Sunday, 12/3/17 updateTurns out that what was read as an ending diagonal 5th wave two weeks ago was in fact a leading diagonal 1st wave of that 5th wave. And that 5th wave is now extending.<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jT_Gp6GqfL0/WiSX2RbKDgI/AAAAAAAAgvM/GacDwOMk2n8-RE91C9woYiCSi2TVOfPzQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-12-03-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jT_Gp6GqfL0/WiSX2RbKDgI/AAAAAAAAgvM/GacDwOMk2n8-RE91C9woYiCSi2TVOfPzQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-12-03-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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There is a potential resistance level in the ES 2665.00 - 2667.50 area, but the ES is right up against it with a lot of fuel in the tank so that level will probably be topped. Next potential resistance is at ES 2733.00. There are a bunch of 4th-5th wave unwinds necessary to resolve the count. So there appears to be a distance yet to travel before a top can be considered. Blow off top anyone? Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-2750320252090453262017-11-18T15:03:00.000-06:002017-11-18T15:03:13.707-06:00Saturday, 11/18/17 updateRecent market activity has been a little difficult to read from an EW standpoint. The short term chart on last weekend's update had the low of Thurs, 11/9 labeled as the "c" wave in an irregular flat. That was blown up this week when further selling continued that move down and formed a 3 wave move from the top on 11/8 - so we have an a-b-c down rather than a 5 wave impulse as required in a "c" wave. This forced a revision of the short term count. The current view is that Minute W3 ended with an ending diagonal that topped at the ATH of 11/8 and the subsequent 3 wave move into last Wednesday's low is the "a" wave of either a flat, triangle or multiple zig-zag Minute W4.<br />
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Short term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2LKHyxrg8Ko/WhCe5fkY83I/AAAAAAAAgpo/LhWSbV9naKo-R4PYw61eFga0XKffpFttQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-18-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2LKHyxrg8Ko/WhCe5fkY83I/AAAAAAAAgpo/LhWSbV9naKo-R4PYw61eFga0XKffpFttQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-18-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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From a wider perspective it's still the case that the current count (IF correct) requires a couple of additional W4 - W5 sequences before a significant top is in place.<br />
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Intermediate term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53HRdfl4LpA/WhCfYqrZgQI/AAAAAAAAgpw/H2dRWzmHyfkoUZcyU5dg0e3PEhqPvAfKQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-18-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-53HRdfl4LpA/WhCfYqrZgQI/AAAAAAAAgpw/H2dRWzmHyfkoUZcyU5dg0e3PEhqPvAfKQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-18-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-90185501325036302532017-11-11T15:47:00.001-06:002017-11-13T08:15:42.552-06:00Saturday, 11/11/17 updateJust a tad wobbly last week, but there needs to be a lot more bear action of that sort before considering a declaration of demise for the bull. Current EW count has 4th & 5th wave unwinds still in progress, so a top is not yet in place IF the count is correct.<br />
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Short term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tF1OoOb578k/WgdvlRelR0I/AAAAAAAAgmQ/q4S3B0xz9xAae9AFhMcInaxifz5iPDDKwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-11-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tF1OoOb578k/WgdvlRelR0I/AAAAAAAAgmQ/q4S3B0xz9xAae9AFhMcInaxifz5iPDDKwCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-11-TOS_CHARTSesph1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Intermediate term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fEeCk2relbQ/Wgdvy8JRpuI/AAAAAAAAgmU/fvKuVKoAy9c3ppLA0F7A0c0NqLHXWtBjgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-11-TOS_CHARTSespd1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fEeCk2relbQ/Wgdvy8JRpuI/AAAAAAAAgmU/fvKuVKoAy9c3ppLA0F7A0c0NqLHXWtBjgCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-11-TOS_CHARTSespd1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> <br />
<br />Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-37689243352319066042017-11-04T17:12:00.000-05:002017-11-04T17:13:41.154-05:00Saturday, 11/4/17 update4th & 5th wave unwinds have been in progress, market is moving towards a top but not there yet. The bull is still stampeding, but it does show signs of getting tired.<br />
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Short term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w9RvWnwX-wU/Wf43YUieSTI/AAAAAAAAgjM/wN_c9s_HAqcXSKwWjyjk0agSPJPbZgbYACLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-w9RvWnwX-wU/Wf43YUieSTI/AAAAAAAAgjM/wN_c9s_HAqcXSKwWjyjk0agSPJPbZgbYACLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Intermediate term chart:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oWTnfZDsd44/Wf43pCnV4zI/AAAAAAAAgjQ/hUM-CyVck2AP222nvhhxUv2iltocDkwKgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oWTnfZDsd44/Wf43pCnV4zI/AAAAAAAAgjQ/hUM-CyVck2AP222nvhhxUv2iltocDkwKgCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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In the last couple of weeks the ES/SPX has rallied while the broader market has been essentially flat. That's a sign of an approaching top - fewer and fewer stocks are seen as having upside potential. The divergence is obvious in the below comparison of the SPX to the NYA. The same divergence is apparent in the RUT.<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RaDLn9pff60/Wf46-K3yKNI/AAAAAAAAgjc/osnXst_SW4UQxbR13eMsiWlu123xKsevQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSspx-nya.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="971" data-original-width="482" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RaDLn9pff60/Wf46-K3yKNI/AAAAAAAAgjc/osnXst_SW4UQxbR13eMsiWlu123xKsevQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-11-04-TOS_CHARTSspx-nya.png" width="316" /></a></div>
<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> <br />
<br />Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-80134280747846324062017-10-14T16:54:00.001-05:002017-10-14T16:54:49.417-05:00Saturday, 10/14/17 updateLast week's action in the ES/SPX served to obscure more than illuminate. It looks somewhat like an ending diagonal - upward sloping wedge kind of shape, so it could be a 5th wave as labeled in the chart. If not then it's a "b" wave of an expanded flat. Either way the indications are to expect a down stroke in prices in the next day or two. If selling does materialize the other message from the current EW count is that it should be a very short lived correction. BTFD baby. <b>NOT TRADING ADVICE</b><br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQPVyzULkrQ/WeKG_-aKsVI/AAAAAAAAgaE/isOAt88xS5gZVvkLADyI_M4O6OS8tLxtQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-10-14-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQPVyzULkrQ/WeKG_-aKsVI/AAAAAAAAgaE/isOAt88xS5gZVvkLADyI_M4O6OS8tLxtQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-10-14-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-23088016013543643012017-10-08T13:02:00.000-05:002017-10-08T13:02:31.141-05:00Sunday, 10/8/17 updateTime for some long term perspective.<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Vs81dxI5-K4/WdlKbbQ584I/AAAAAAAAgW8/ZPtIHGqXxSM0K9w9iDpYxFqJmAbMtZsPQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Vs81dxI5-K4/WdlKbbQ584I/AAAAAAAAgW8/ZPtIHGqXxSM0K9w9iDpYxFqJmAbMtZsPQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSespw.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The above long term weekly chart has been published in the update from time to time. Although it's never been mentioned in the discussion the chart has displayed a target of ES 2569 for Primary W III for some time. The ES is very near to that target with last week's strong ramp up. Primary W III started at the lows of 2010. Note that the ES is right up to the top of the channel that's defined Primary W III since 2011. Finally, the current count has the ES in wave 5 of 5 of Primary W III.<br />
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All this IS NOT to say that a crash is imminent. What it does say is that a major turn is possible. But momentum is pretty strong right now, and the ES could quite easily extend and blow through that 2569 target and the top of the long term channel. So what's a trader to do? The trend has been up and remains so, so until there are definite signs of a change of trend the bull must be respected. Equity markets tend to form rounded tops, so whenever that Primary W III top is established there should be time to identify it and respond appropriately.<br />
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Daily chart:<br />
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yZ8VFjHDrgw/WdlO7EYgboI/AAAAAAAAgXU/3TJNQ2_aqg4tE1c8mqA1ZAqCHsppIcZLwCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSespd1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yZ8VFjHDrgw/WdlO7EYgboI/AAAAAAAAgXU/3TJNQ2_aqg4tE1c8mqA1ZAqCHsppIcZLwCLcBGAs/s640/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSespd1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Speaking of strong momentum, the ramp up from the ST low of Sep 25 looks a lot more like a 3rd wave than a 5th wave. Coming into last week it looked as if Minute Waves 1, 2, 3 & 4 of Minor W3 off the late August low were done and Minute W5 was in progress. However, the rally from the Sep 25 low has been stronger and longer than the preceding rally leg. There is therefore the possibility that Minute W3 is extending and that we are currently seeing Micro W3 of Minute W3. Thus the labeling on the short term chart: <br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oyLOwrlC2qg/WdlOvavAw5I/AAAAAAAAgXQ/ZqMLsrb46OcF7ppLmth5Q6iTtRAYRaUPgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oyLOwrlC2qg/WdlOvavAw5I/AAAAAAAAgXQ/ZqMLsrb46OcF7ppLmth5Q6iTtRAYRaUPgCLcBGAs/s640/2017-10-07-TOS_CHARTSesph.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> <br />
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-11942936390189715592017-09-30T10:58:00.002-05:002017-10-02T16:25:26.166-05:00Saturday, 9/30/17 updateThe bull keeps grinding away. Possible top of at least intermediate degree in October.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><b>Alternate #1</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZomT3ujreC4/Wc--BOhj26I/AAAAAAAAgTw/F5xoEjxHsa0pymWtpYZUaooebHCH-Li1gCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-09-30-TOS_CHARTSespd2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZomT3ujreC4/Wc--BOhj26I/AAAAAAAAgTw/F5xoEjxHsa0pymWtpYZUaooebHCH-Li1gCLcBGAs/s640/2017-09-30-TOS_CHARTSespd2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><b>Alternate #2</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-83yNgXFJz_0/Wc--RmWnUAI/AAAAAAAAgT0/tUPEaBily605XblLCWzNR95n40ozn1VYQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-09-30-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-83yNgXFJz_0/Wc--RmWnUAI/AAAAAAAAgT0/tUPEaBily605XblLCWzNR95n40ozn1VYQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-09-30-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> </div>
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-29780140650569929182017-09-16T17:02:00.000-05:002017-09-16T17:02:01.237-05:00Saturday, 9/16/17 updateThe ES closed at an even 2500.00 on Friday. Ding!! One more milepost on the way to ES 10000.00. Bears are extinct, go long or be wrong!!<br />
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Obviously, the trend continues to be up. The question as to what degree to assign to the early August correction remains open. Was it Intermediate W4 as in alternate #1 below? If so a major top is nearby. Or was it a Minute W4 of an extended Minor W5 as in alternate #2? In that case there's a lot more bull market yet to occur before that major top comes into view. Right now alternate #2 seems more likely given the relative shallowness of that early August correction.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><b>Alternate #1</b></u></div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rfzBw8osLzA/Wb2cheXsmmI/AAAAAAAAgMs/ICELAbaH51A41UHYmkFGd6qoj-gr95MTQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-09-16-TOS_CHARTSespd2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rfzBw8osLzA/Wb2cheXsmmI/AAAAAAAAgMs/ICELAbaH51A41UHYmkFGd6qoj-gr95MTQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-09-16-TOS_CHARTSespd2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<u><b>Alternate #2 </b></u></div>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sympwrs9SBQ/Wb2cuCFcJRI/AAAAAAAAgMw/_3MFU6a9NlQ98nRNqjJI7XMMSq0hTgMBQCLcBGAs/s1600/2017-09-16-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1600" height="332" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sympwrs9SBQ/Wb2cuCFcJRI/AAAAAAAAgMw/_3MFU6a9NlQ98nRNqjJI7XMMSq0hTgMBQCLcBGAs/s640/2017-09-16-TOS_CHARTSespd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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A major top will be accompanied by some type of panic. If alternate #1 is correct there should be a significant negative financial and/or geopolitical development that occurs in the very near future. Some things of note in this regard are the recent moves by major world Central Banks to more restrictive postures and of course the North Korean situation. Worth watching these.</div>
Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-78746853625845315112017-09-04T16:14:00.000-05:002017-09-04T16:14:22.046-05:00Monday 9/4/17 updateMy Grandpa was an Italian immigrant. I remember him as a formidable figure. I also remember that when he got animated he would pepper his heavily accented speech with the phrase "sonnamabitch!!" I can still hear him saying it. This last week I heard <i>myself</i> muttering that phrase a number of times as the ES/SPX blew my bearish socks off.<br />
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The ramp up this last week has opened up several possibilities. It could be that Inter W3, which started at the election day low last November, may have concluded on Aug 8 with a top at
ES 2488.50 as in Alternate #1 below. In that possibility the 3 wave
zig-zag into the low on Aug 21 may be the entirety of Inter W4 or Minor
Wave "a" of Inter W4. EW rules are that waves 2 & 4 in an impulse
should alternate in form, from that standpoint the zig-zag type sell off
into the Aug 21st low alternates nicely with the flat formed by Inter
W2 in June, 2016. If that zig-zag was only the 1st leg of Inter W4 then we should
expect to see a triangle or multiple zig-zag formation for the balance
of Inter W4.<br />
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<u><b>Alternate #1 </b></u></div>
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One observation of note is the relative shallowness of the
Aug 8 to Aug 21 sell-off in comparison to Inter W2, which gives rise to
the idea that the correction was not Inter W4 but part of an extended
Minor W5 of Inter W3. This thought is outlined in Alternate #2.<br />
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<u><b>Alternate #2 </b></u></div>
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So how can we evaluate which of these possibilities is in play as events unfold? Unfortunately the only possibility that can be easily eliminated is the idea that Inter W4 is still in progress - that alternate will be effectively eliminated with a run to new all time highs. The question as to whether Inter W3 is extending cannot be easily answered without a lot more information - i.e. market activity.<br />
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> <br />
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<br />Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3260219884636127878.post-91042088758131749112017-08-19T15:26:00.001-05:002017-09-04T16:12:20.785-05:00Saturday, 8/19/17 updateIf you're a bear (count me in that camp) your resolve was tested this last week with the strong ramp up that started the prior Friday and topped on Wednesday. But Thursday brought confirmation of that bearish posture and the idea that the 4th wave (Intermediate W4) of a bull sequence that commenced in Feb, 2016 is underway.<br />
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Thus far we've had 3 waves since the Aug 8th top through Friday's low - a 5 wave impulse into the low of Aug 11 followed by a 3 wave correction into Wednesday morning's high and thence another 5 wave impulse into Friday's low. This sequence is either an a-b-c zig-zag with Friday's low either the completion of the "c" leg or the bottom of the 1st wave of the "c" leg<i> OR </i>it's waves 1, 2 & 3 (in progress) of a much larger "a" wave off the Aug 8th top. It's difficult to say which possibility is unfolding, but there are some considerations which point to the likelihood that there's more bear activity yet to occur. First consideration is the depth and duration of Inter W2 (which occurred in June of last year<i>) </i>which lasted three weeks and dropped roughly 140 points in the ES. So far we're less than 2 weeks and roughly 70 points from the Aug 8 top. Second is the position of some longer term momentum indicators which have not yet reached the "oversold" territory normally seen at IT bottoms. However, it's important to note that there are enough waves in place for Inter W4 to be complete at Friday's low, so from an EW standpoint it would be acceptable to have that as the termination of Inter W4. The market was oversold on a short term basis at Friday's low so the resulting bounce was no surprise, and it's likely that the move up from that low has more to go. If the rally gather's steam and tops the ES 2474 high of Wednesday in an impulsive fashion then the odds that Inter W4 is complete mount quite a bit.<br />
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If the sell off resumes there are two areas of potential chart support to watch as potential bottoms for Inter W4: ES 2400 and below that ES 2317-2322. <br />
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<b>NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts</b> Apple Alhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17204586750882418134noreply@blogger.com0