Today is Saturday and I had planned a lengthy post showing longer term perspectives. However I got sidetracked on another project and the clock is running out. Anyway, the exercise would be sort of like reinventing the wheel, there are some excellent analysts out there who would echo my viewpoints. Two that I pay particular attention to are:
Tony Caldaerow
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
Daneric
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Caldaroew was long term bearish and has swung to bullish in the last month or so. Daneric has been bearish and remains in that camp. As usual, there are very convincing arguments on both sides of the coin.
My take is that we are in fact at an extremely critical juncture and this thing could easily swing one way or another over the next month or two, and whichever way we swing is going to win the longer term argument. I lean more towards the bullish camp based on economic and political fundamentals. I know the argument that you can't trust government economic reports, but it is apparent that the bottom of the crisis (for now) is past us. Also, it is an election year, and the Feds will be getting pushed HARD to dress things up.
For trading purposes however I'm very nervous about the long position established Friday AM. For one thing I did a lousy job on timing the trade (should have had a little more patience, could have entered at a much better level). For another, some of the technical work I do is indicating a very short term (1 or 2 day) top as of the close Friday. I'm going to chew on it some more, but I may go to cash tomorrow evening with a buy on stop order in place overnight.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
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