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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Go Long or be Wrong

Things sure swung around today, covered short ES for loss after hours.  What was shaping up to be a nice impulse down turned out to be the C wave in a zig-zag correction to all appearances, with the C wave being an ending diagonal.
The break over the trendline at end of day was accompanied by a buy signal in my momentum indicator, so I'm looking for a spot to go long ES.
From a longer term perspective, there are at least three very valid EW counts that could be applied here. If time permits I'll lay those out over the weekend.  But bottom line is the move off today's lows is clearly impulsive and was accompanied by a buy signal in my system, so a long trade is dictated at the best opportunity.  Plan is to go long on a pullback with a stop at or below today's low of ES 1085.75.  The one thing that is of concern is the possibility that what we're seeing is a running flat, where "B" above is actually "a", "C" is actually "b", and we're in the final "c" leg right now.  This would mean hard down in the immediate offing.  So if a long trade is executed, the stop needs to be a stop & reverse.
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