ES Daily
ES hourly - alternate #1
ES hourly - alternate #2
Candy for the bulls:
ES Daily
Candy for both:
ES Daily
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012
Friday, 1/13/12 update
Two possibilities right here:
Alternate #1
Alternate #2
I'm not committing just yet, watching counter trend rally currently underway. Next week is op ex, those weeks have tended towards a bullish bias, plus HATE to go short on a Friday, so we'll see.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Tuesday, 1/10/12 update
Snapshot of current Elliott count (red dotted lines are projections drawn in on Saturday - couldn't resist a little bragging)
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Saturday, 1/7/12 update
The ES has clearly been losing momentum since the blast off from the low of Dec 19. Prices were essentially flat this week except for the gap up opening of Tuesday. So right now Alternate #3 below would seem to be the most likely outcome.Alternate #1
Alternate #2
Alternate #3
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Thursday, 1/5/12 update
Short term sell signal on the ES this morning, could be bogus as the pattern down since Tuesday's high looks more corrective than impulsive. ES 1260.50 is a key level, if prices push below that it puts an entirely different light on the picture.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Tuesday, 1/3/12 update
Today's rally in the ES has ruled out the triangle alternate from yesterday's post. But don't despair all you bears because there's another possibility along the same lines. It could be that there still is a medium term double or triple zig-zag bear market formation in the works as per yesterday's Alternate #3, but instead of the "X" wave being a triangle it is itself forming a double zig-zag. In that case, the ES can be counted as being in the "C" or last leg of the second zig-zag. If true, a possible termination spot would be at a trend line connecting the highs from the May top (blue line in chart).
Monday, January 2, 2012
Monday, 1/2/12 update
There are three alternates right now in the ES. The first two are identical in their very near term implications but very different in their medium term outcomes.
On the medium term, Alternate #1 outlines a 3-3-5 flat type bear market structure dating back to the top of last May, with the "A" wave complete at the early October low and the "B" wave in progress. The "B" wave should top at or near the May highs over the coming weeks and usher in some pretty serious "C" wave selling. A likely target for that "C" wave would be the .618 retracement level of the Mar '09 to May '11 bull market at ES 936.
Alternate #2 also has a medium term 3-3-5 flat type bear market, but that flat is an irregular flat that is marked as starting at the highs of last February and concluding at the October low. In this count the ES has completed an Intermediate Wave 1 & 2 off that low and is in the early stages of Intermediate W3. The expectation in this alternate is for a strong and extended bull market from here forward.
Alternate #3 is near term bearish and the most intriguing of the three. In this count the pattern from the May high into the October low is the 1st 5-3-5 zig-zag in what will eventually be a double (or triple) zig-zag type bear market. Since the October low the ES is labeled as having formed a triangle type "X" wave with the "E" wave of that structure complete in last week's trading. If correct, that would mark the conclusion of the "X" wave and the ES should immediately tip over into the 1st leg of the 2nd zig-zag of the bear market. A likely eventual target here is the same as in Alternate #1: ES 936.
Alternate #3 has the edge as of this moment due to the situation at the end of trading last Friday. At that point there was a sell signal in effect on the ES/SPX under the Trendline/Oscillator system. Further, the Vindicator Buy/Sell has been oscillating, which it tends to do at market turns, with the Sell line close to crossing above the Buy line. A cross of the Sell above the Buy would be an initial confirmation of a turn down.
On the medium term, Alternate #1 outlines a 3-3-5 flat type bear market structure dating back to the top of last May, with the "A" wave complete at the early October low and the "B" wave in progress. The "B" wave should top at or near the May highs over the coming weeks and usher in some pretty serious "C" wave selling. A likely target for that "C" wave would be the .618 retracement level of the Mar '09 to May '11 bull market at ES 936.
Alternate #1
Alternate #2 also has a medium term 3-3-5 flat type bear market, but that flat is an irregular flat that is marked as starting at the highs of last February and concluding at the October low. In this count the ES has completed an Intermediate Wave 1 & 2 off that low and is in the early stages of Intermediate W3. The expectation in this alternate is for a strong and extended bull market from here forward.
Alternate #2
Alternate #3 is near term bearish and the most intriguing of the three. In this count the pattern from the May high into the October low is the 1st 5-3-5 zig-zag in what will eventually be a double (or triple) zig-zag type bear market. Since the October low the ES is labeled as having formed a triangle type "X" wave with the "E" wave of that structure complete in last week's trading. If correct, that would mark the conclusion of the "X" wave and the ES should immediately tip over into the 1st leg of the 2nd zig-zag of the bear market. A likely eventual target here is the same as in Alternate #1: ES 936.
Alternate #3
Alternate #3 has the edge as of this moment due to the situation at the end of trading last Friday. At that point there was a sell signal in effect on the ES/SPX under the Trendline/Oscillator system. Further, the Vindicator Buy/Sell has been oscillating, which it tends to do at market turns, with the Sell line close to crossing above the Buy line. A cross of the Sell above the Buy would be an initial confirmation of a turn down.
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