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Sunday, September 27, 2015

Sunday, 9/27/15 update

In the ES on the short term, the pattern since the spike high on 9/17 @ 2011.75 into last Thursday's low at 1897.25 is an impulse:

The count may look a bit awkward, but it is supported by the patterns in the SPX and the NYA over the same time frame which are clearly 5 wave moves.  As noted on the chart the bounce since Thursday's low may be all of the correction against that impulse or wave "a" of that correction.  If the correction has more to come then a possible area for it's conclusion is the .618 retrace of the impulse at ES 1968.  That level also happens to be the area where the 4th wave of the down impulse topped, which is a common retrace terminus for a correction.

Backing out to a longer view, it's very difficult to see how the action in the market since the ES 1831.00 crash low of Aug 24 into the Sep 17 spike high is anything but a corrective sequence.  Lots of overlaps and choppiness, anything but an impulsive character which would mark the start of a bull move.  So it is most probable that the 1831.00 low will be tested and likely exceeded in the coming weeks.

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