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Sunday, September 20, 2015

Sunday, 9/20/15 update

Let's start with the short term.  The sell off that started Thursday has generated a 5 wave structure with the 5th wave close to completed (or complete):


The Equity Oscillator and Tick Analysis are down at the bottom of their ranges, so the technicals are in a position where a rally is made possible:


So the set up for a short term rally is in place.  If the impulse off the Thursday high is not complete, ES 1939.50 and 1934.00 are levels to watch for a turn.  One final note: in the above count wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, so wave 5 cannot exceed wave 3.  Based on that observation, ES 1928.75 is the point at which waves 5 and 3 would be equal, so a continuation below that level will mean that something else is at play here - either the move is extending or it's forming something other than an impulse.

Backing out to a longer perspective, the ES has formed a double zig-zag from the Aug 24 crash low at 1831.00 into Thursday's spike high at 2011.75:


Elliott Wave rules allow for up to three zig-zags in a multiple zig-zag formation.  So there is the possibility that the structure off the 1831.00 low is not complete.  At this point that likelihood appears to have a low probability but it has to be recognized.  The probability is low because as of Thursday the upward drift since the 1831.00 low has provided relief to the "oversold" conditions extant at that low.  So the favored view is that the ES has concluded a bear market correction as of Thursday and more significant selling is on deck following a short term rally early next week.
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