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Saturday, April 25, 2015

Saturday, 4/25/15 update

Although the ES did not make a new ATH this week the cash market (S&P500) did as well as a number of other indexes.  So one of the three alternates under consideration in recent weeks can reasonably be eliminated, and that is that the  highs of Feb 25 marked the start of a bear market.  That leaves two alternates:

 The 1st alternate has Major W5 of the bull market from the 2011 lows underway, with Inter W1 & W2 of that structure complete and W3 in progress.  That leaves waves 4 & 5 yet to unwind into a significant Primary W III top.  Possible targets for that top are at 2147.75 where Major W5 = .786 x Major W1, and at 2195.00 where Major W5 = Major W1.

The 2nd alternate has Major W3 of Primary W III still unfolding but in its final stages with an ending diagonal Intermediate W5 in its final stages.  Target here should be in the vicinity of the trendline connecting Minor W1 & W3 of the diagonal, currently it looks like 2155 - 2160 is a likely area.  If this alternate is in play then the bull market off the 2011 lows has a bit yet to run in terms of time and price - it will need a Major W4 & W5 to play out yet before the Primary W III top.  Unfortunately for the bear camp, from an EW standpoint this alternate fits better with the waves that have been formed, both from a daily and from an intraday standpoint.
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