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Saturday, April 11, 2015

Saturday, 4/11/15 update

The equities market has sure been doing a good job of hiding it's longer term intentions as of recent months, which is to say that the intermediate term trend has been sideways.  Nice market for swing traders, impossible market for those who like to play trends or who might be perma-bulls or perma-bears.  OK for day trading for those who are nimble. 
One would like to think that a change in the long term trend from bull to bear is in the works, we've seen 6 years of steady and sometimes powerful up moves.  There is no doubt that the upside momentum that was apparent in recent years has been absent.  But a bear move cannot yet be said to be underway with any conviction.

The three possibilities presented a couple of weeks ago are still in play.  The 1st two are that the top of Feb 25 marked the termination of Primary Wave III off the Oct 2011 lows or that it marked the top of Intermediate Wave 1 of Major Wave 5 of Primary Wave III:


The 3rd possibility is that Intermediate Wave 5 of Major Wave 3 is still in progress and is forming an ending diagonal:


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There are a couple of short term indicators that I've been experimenting with that show some promise:


The 1st indicator (blue line) is an adaptation of Al's Daily Indicator to intraday use.  The 2nd indicator (red line) is an oscillator based on the NYSE tick.  So far my take on these is that they are pretty reliable in a cycling market but tend to become useless in a strongly trending market.  These indicators will be posted on this site here.  I will post them at least once a day as well as intraday as time permits.  If anyone is interested in the code for these indicators please contact me at sunset@mwt.net.

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