Saturday, 4/18/15 update

Nice sell off on Friday, but bears shouldn't get too excited yet.  We are still inside the trading range of recent months, with ES 2118 marking the upper boundary and 2032 the lower.  Until one of those two levels is surpassed with sustained trade the intermediate term trend is indefinite.  My guess is we'll see a stab above the upper limit for a week or two, just enough to suck in more bulls, and then we'll top.

The 3 alternate possibilities presented in recent weeks are STILL in play.  Rather than walk through them again, here are the charts:

                                                                       Alternates 1 & 2

                                                                           Alternate 3

The NYSE Tick analysis did a great job of signalling Friday's selloff on Thursday.  Note that the indicator declined steadily on Thursday despite the rally earlier in the day, i.e. it diverged.  This chart has been getting posted twice a day here.