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Sunday, June 30, 2013

Sunday, 6/30/13 update

The big question in the ES/SPX right now is whether the selling since the May 22nd top is over.  Since that top the ES has traced out a double zig-zag into last Monday's 1553.25 low.  The action since that low has been impulsive looking, and there were a couple of important momentum indicators that fired buy signals off that low.  So as of Friday morning the odds were for an IT low being in place as of Jun 24 and a rally sequence in progress.

However, EW allows for as many as three zig-zags in a multiple zig-zag sequence, so with two in place it is possible for another downstroke to occur and still conform to EW rules.  And the pattern Friday after the overnight highs has an impulse down followed by an odd looking corrective sequence and then another impulse down into the close, and that final impulse could just be the start of a wave. 
So it is possible that the ES put in an X wave high early Friday AM and has since tipped over into the third and final zig-zag in the series since the May 22nd top.

The 1st zig-zag, wave W, was 89.25 points and the 2nd zig-zag, wave Y, was 95.75 points, so pretty close in size.  Deducting those values from Friday's 1614.50 high print yields an initial target area of 1525.25 to 1518.75 for wave Z.

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