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Saturday, June 15, 2013

Saturday, 6/15/13 update

There are a myriad of possibilities at this juncture on the short term for the ES/SPX.  Actually, the same could be said for the intermediate term.  One thing relatively certain however is that the bear market from the May 22nd top is corrective in nature rather than the start of a long term bear market.  That statement of course probably makes it all but certain that we collapse from here.                     

Just kidding. 

Anyway, here are some EW possibilities, not necessarily in the order of probability:


4th wave in progress, double zig-zag developing with 1st of those zig-zags (wave "W') complete at the low of Jun 6, "X" wave currently unfolding in the form of a flat with A & B leg of flat done and C leg in progress, completion of "X" wave will usher in 2nd zig-zag (wave "Y") into eventual low for wave 4.  There is also the possibility that wave 4 will be a triple zig-zag (not shown).


 Same as above except that the "X" wave forms a triangle instead of a flat.


4th wave has formed a double zig-zag which was complete at the low of Jun 13, 5th wave now in progress.


4th wave in progress, it will be a triple zig-zag.  First two zig-zags are complete with 2nd "X" wave in progress, last zig-zag will ensue at completion of current "X" wave.


So the waters are pretty muddy here, and there's a fair chance that what eventually transpires will be none of the above.  From a trading standpoint, it's time to be extra cautious.

3 comments:

  1. hello, I guess the key question is whether this wave down that is corrective, could not morph into an impulsive one? Besides, I think you are right in pointing to the fact that it is possibly more dangerous than what it seems, as there is a consensus around its corrective nature. It is also interesting that while many daily indicators are over-sold, many weekly are either on a sell-signal or approaching sell-signal. Just to add to the confusion I guess. Best

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  2. Anything is possible, the question is the probability. The pattern from the ES 1672.75 high on May 28 into the 1596.50 low on Jun 6 is clearly a diagonal and most likely an ending diagonal "C" wave in a zig zag as I've labeled it. For this to morph into a down impulse would require that structure to be labeled a leading diagonal 1st wave, with the pattern since then a 2nd wave in progress - and that whole series would be the 2nd wave 1 - wave 2 combination since the all time highs of May 22. All this gets rather cumbersome looking on the chart, Occam's razor mitigates against it's probability.

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  3. Makes sense, all the best.

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