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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Thursday, 1/31/13 update

We may have seen a very significant top in the ES this week with Wednesday's high print of 1506.00.
This site has maintained that the entire bull market from the March '09 lows is an "X" wave - basically an intermission in a very long term bear market.  In that context, the ES is viewed as forming a double zig-zag in the period since those Mar '09 lows, with the second of those zig-zags in progress since the Oct '11 lows.  Further, this second zig-zag is nearing completion, with waves A and B done and wave C forming an ending diagonal that is in it's 5th, and thus last, wave.

There is a significant confluence of factors at Wednesday's 1506 high.  First, a trendline connecting the wave 1 and wave 3 tops of the ending diagonal intersects Wednesday's high almost perfectly.  Second, a trendline drawn across the tops of the wave 5 highs also lands in that same vicinity on Wednesday.  Third, a fibonacci 1.618 multiple of Major Wave A of the current zig zag added to the low of Major Wave B yields a top for Major Wave C of 1505.50.  Fourth, a fibonacci .618 multiple of Primary Wave W, the 1st of the double zig-zags of Cycle Wave X, when added to the 1068.00 low marking the onset of Primary Wave Y yields a top for Primary Wave Y of 1505.50.

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