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Sunday, February 3, 2013

Sunday, 2/3/13 update

Concerning Thursday's post about a possible significant top in the ES: never mind.

Actually, that analysis still might be correct, but for that to be the case the ES can't travel too far in both time and price from this point.  I'd say no more than 10 or 15 points higher and another week out.

There are a couple of coal mine canaries giving warning right now.  First is the  iShares HYG fund, an ETF which contains high yield corporate bonds.  The HYG has tended to lead the general equities market, which makes sense because interest rate movements will effect the HYG in a dramatic way and also will have an impact on equity valuations.  The HYG has been collapsing in the last week - and meanwhile equities have kept on chuggin' up their hill.

The other is the relative value of the Russell 2000 (RUT) to the SPX.  In the bar chart below, the RUT is in black and the SPX in purple, and the indicator below is a ratio of RUT/SPX.  This ratio also has a tendency to lead.  As can be seen, in the last week the ratio broke an uptrend line that has defined it since last November's low and may be in the process of forming a double top.

However, as they say "Bull markets climb a wall of worry" and it could well be that these two indicators are just plain wrong ( as well as a number of others that are flashing yellow at this time). 

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