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Sunday, January 20, 2013

Sunday, 1/20/13 update

Go long or be wrong.  But for how long?

The ending diagonal EW count is still the favored viewpoint for the ES/SPX on this site.  The view of this count is presented as Alternate 1 below.  However, there is another way to develop an ending diagonal count that is presented as Alternate 2 below.  The primary difference between the two is that Alternate 2 sees a conclusion to the formation in very short order - sometime in the next two weeks to be specific.   Alternate 2 arose as a result of trying to fit the preferred ES count to the NYSE.  It doesn't work because wave 3 winds up being the shortest wave in the sequence, and that's a no-no under EW rules.

Alternate 1 has the ES grinding out new highs into a top sometime in early spring.  Under this view the ES is in Micro W3 of Minute W3 of the last leg of the ED, so there needs to be a Micro W4 & W5 followed by a Minute W4 & W5 before the final top.  

ALTERNATE 1

Long term - Daily bars


Short term - Hourly bars


Alternate 2 shows the ES to be in Micro W5 of Minute W5 of the last leg of the ED, so as mentioned earlier a major top is very close if this viewpoint is correct.  1505.00 is a possible target area for that top.
ALTERNATE 2
Long term - Daily bars

Short term - Hourly bars



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