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Thursday, August 2, 2012

Thursday, 8/2/12 update

ES somewhat oversold here, but not drastically so.

BEAR COUNT
(15 minute bars)

ST bear count has a sloppy Micro W1 into Tuesday's low followed by an irregular flat Micro W2 ending at this morning's high.  The drop since then has not yet developed a clear 5 wave structure, so if this count is accurate it has a distance yet to travel.  Invalidation level on this count is the Micro W1 low at 1370.25.

BULL COUNT
(1 hour bars)

ST bull count has a zig zag Minute W2 in progress since the Minute W1 highs early this week.  The 80% retrace level of Minute W1 at 1334.50 is a red flag for this count, and the count is invalidated on a drop below the 1321.25 low of Jul 24.  Although the bottom could well be in at the low so far today at 1349.50, if there is any further selling the .618 retrace of Minute W1 at 1346.50 could be a turning point.
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