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Sunday, August 19, 2012

Sunday, 8/19/12 update

The IT bearish alternate for the ES has an invalidation point of 1419.75.  With this evening's high print of 1417.50 and with the EW count in an apparent 3rd wave it seems fairly certain to be ruled out sometime over the coming hours.

So that leaves the bullish alternate.  That count has the ES in an ending diagonal that's been unfolding  since the lows of last October:


Zoomed in:


OR


The idea here is that the entire bull market since the Mar '09 low has been an "X" wave which merely serves to separate two major bear markets, and that X wave has formed a double zig-zag which is in it's last stages.  If the above charts are in any way close to what may occur, then a major top can be expected sometime in late September or October.

There is another alternate that's been put forward by Pretzel which this site hadn't seen but which also is possible.  It's a variation on the same theme and projects the same results in the same basic time frame (note: don't know if Pretzel consider's the bull market since Mar '09 an X wave):


4 comments:

  1. Nice work Al.  Thanks.  Have you ever been over to Binve's site to see his long term views?  Here's one of his visions as a potential outcome.  He's a class act and I'm starting to see the potential that his longer term visions might be a complete possibility.  I'm particularly intrigued by the fact that this weekend he told me this:

    "I hear you about money and debt. Several years ago, I thought I
    understood it too. But a few years ago when I started reading MMT, I
    realized that all my preconceptions we wrong. Not just a little wrong,
    but way wrong. My current thinking about money and debt is most closely
    aligned with MMR/MMT (reading Warren Mosler and Cullen Roche is about
    the best education you can get about how our monetary system actually
    works with good observations on what it means for market behavior).
    "

    Thanks again for your own views bud.  Have a great week :-)

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  2. Just glanced at Binve's chart that you attached, his long term count is identical to mine in the sense that we both identify the 2000 peak as the top of the bull mkt from the 1930's and that we both count the 2000  - 2009 pattern as a flat with the action since 2009 as an X wave.  I'll check out his site.  Good to hear from you, thought I might have been on your bad side.

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  3. My bad side?  Never Al.  Surely you're just yankin' my chain with that one?  My apologies, but honestly I just keep myself so busy (unfortunately mostly with stuff I'd prefer not to have to deal with) that I just don't have the time I'd like to dedicate to traveling around the blog visiting my friends and dropping off comments.  You're on that friends list bud.  :-)

    By the way, I've published at least a half dozen articles the earliest of which was as long as perhaps two years ago, that all pointed at the same conclusion... that the top of the bull market and the actual peak in inflation occurred in 1999-2000.  At first, or maybe I should say, "with the publication of the first one", I didn't initially recognize that fact for what it was.  It was only until a second, then and third then a fourth different type of analysis all kept pointing to the same year, a year of undeniable transition, as being year 2000 not 2007.

    You're always be on my good side buddy.  And Binve... he's a real good guy too.

    All the best Al.

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  4. Yes I like what I've seen so far of Binve.
    Real frustrating position right now, I've been working an ES calendar spread for over a week  - short the Sep contract and long the Dec - sold the Dec this AM and still holding the short Sep.  Problem is I'm leaving 8 AM tomorrow for a 3 day business trip and just won't be able to monitor things as they need to be monitored.  I put a 15 point trailing stop on the Sep for lack of a better approach, but my guess is that if there is follow through selling it won't be until after a relief rally that manages to get JUST high enough to hit my stop.  But maybe not.
    I hope to be able to trade full time someday when I grow up lol.

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