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Saturday, August 4, 2012

Saturday, 8/4/12 update

Any amusement park in the country would covet the roller coaster ride in the ES/SPX this summer.  The comment of last week still remains pertinent: until the ES/SPX breaks out of the trading range of recent months it's very difficult to determine the IT trend.  The choppy, overlapping structure of recent weeks looks corrective in nature (bearish), but even with that the ES/SPX has had an upward bias and is within spitting distance of the post crash highs (bullish).

The McClellan Oscillator might provide a clue to the IT possibilities.  There's a fractal apparent in the pattern which has bullish implications.

 
Following an IT low in early July of 2010 the market rallied strongly into a high in early August.  Along the way the McClellan spiked to a reading of 302.  A subsequent corrective sell off moved the McClellan back down to a reading of -205.  A sustained bull market followed that "reset".  The best way to characterize the sequence is that it was a Wave 1 burst off a significant low that spiked the A/D statistics, and although some selling resulted it was in the nature of relieving a short term overbought situation.
Now fast forward to June of this year.  Once again we see a sharp rally from what may turn out to be a significant low accompanied by a spike in the McClellan to a high of 307 in early July.  Following that there was a sell off which moved the McClellan back down to a reading of -159 thus "resetting" it.  So possibly we are looking at another spike - reset sequence as in 2010, with the implication that an IT bull market is in progress.

ES bear and bull alternate counts as of Friday close look like this:

Bear alternate
Note: a print above the March high at 1419.75 invalidates this count

Bull alternate

One final note.  Perhaps the best indicator of the eventual resolution of the recent trading range isn't to be found in EW analysis or examination of market technicals.  That indicator is simply that it is a presidential election year, and bear markets are bearish for re-election prospects.



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