Thursday, 6/7/12 update

I'm afraid I may have thrown some folks off with yesterday's update.  The ES count presented there was an ALTERNATE count, the PREFERRED count is below.  Coming into this week it looked like the odds were 75/25 preferred to alternate, but with the action this week I believe we've shifted to something like 55/45 preferred to alternate.
Hourly count on the preferred has the ES in a minor W4 (red numbers) to the drop from the Mar 27 high.  Minor W2 was a simple zig-zag, so Minor W4 needs to be a flat, triangle or some sort of complex structure.  Unfortunately the point at which a rally would invalidate this count under Elliott rules is at the bottom of Minor W1 (red), which is way up at 1386.25.  However, as a practical matter a continuation of this rally with enough steam to bring those levels into view would make this count dubious.
Projections on the chart are just to show possible form, they are NOT intended as price predictions.

Preferred count - 2 hour bars

Preferred count - Daily bars