Sunday, 6/10/12 update

This is one of those difficult junctures for a technician, or at least this technician.  There are two very plausible and diametrically opposed alternates right now.  Usually there are underlying technical indications to lean on in determining which alternate is more probable.  And in fact, those technicals seem to support the bullish case, but there is a problem.  There are a number of momentum, adv/dec and volume based metrics which normally show divergences at significant market bottoms.  Those tools did not show their typical divergent patterns at the ES low of Jun 3.  So is that telling us something?  They don't have to diverge, but if the bull alternate is in play it will do so with kind of an unsettled kick off.  Of course, if the bear alternate is correct, than the lack of divergences would be expected.  Won't know the answer definitively for a while.

Bear Alternate 

Daily Bars

Hourly Bars

(note: Minor W1 (red numerals) in this count is a leading diagonal)

Bull Alternate 

Daily Bars

Hourly Bars