Saturday, 6/16/12 update

A week ago in the update I complained about the lack of divergences at the June 4th low and the resulting difficulty in determining the likelihood of either the bull or bear case.  At the time I was referring to hourly charts and associated indicators.  However, yesterday while reviewing a daily chart of the ES it was obvious that clear momentum divergences did in fact occur at that June 4 low.  Don't know how that was missed until just yesterday, but they are there and pretty hard to ignore.  The other thing that pops out on the daily chart is that on Friday the ES closed right at the downtrend line that defines the drop down from the high of May1.
So right now the bull case has to move into the preferred column, and a close above the downtrend line in the near future would boost the probabilities of a sustained bull even higher.

Bull alternate

Bear alternate