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Monday, April 9, 2012

Monday, 4/9/12 update

Possible ES count:


  1. Hi Al,

    I was wondering what your target range might be for this correction.

    You look at Fibonacci relationships a little differently than I do, but we are ending up in the same ES range.

    I am using the Dec low as the start of my wave count (1196 on ES) which ended at 1419.75.

    A 0.382 Fib retracement of this move would be 1334 just like you have on your chart.

    How do you know if this is a wave 4 or a wave c?

    For the 1196 to 1420 wave, I have subwave 1 ending at 1329 (Wave 4 cannot go below?)

    If the down moves are now composed of 5 waves on the shorter time frames does that mean that we will have 5 waves down on the longer time frames?

    That is Wave 1 down: 1420 to 1330ish
    Wave 2 cannot retrace 100% of Wave 1

    EW is still confusing for me.

    I am pretty good at seeing waves once they begin, but how they start is perplexing.

    I better leave thing at this point for now.


  2.  I have 2 target ranges: 1366.75 - 1363.50, if that doesn't hold then 1329.75 - 1334.00.  I also am using the 1195.50 - 1419.75 as a base for retracement levels, also using fib multiples of what is either an "a" wave or wave 1 down from 1419.75 on Mar 27 to 1386.25 on Mar 29, finally looking at fib multiples of move down from 1417.75 on Apr 2 to 1384.00 on Apr 5 which looks like a wave 1.
    I'm charting two alternate counts right now, one has the move down from Apr 2 as the "c" wave in a flat type wave 4, the other has the same move as a wave 3 of the 1st wave of a much more serious bear market. See my Saturday post.
    5 waves down on a shorter time frame does not necessarily mean 5 waves down on a longer time frame.

  3. In your opinion, does this pattern look and ABC correction (A: 1422 to 1357), (B: 1357 to 1388 so far. This means we need a c wave that goes below 1357, I think the 1337-1340 area will end C.

    This would mean that Major 3 finished at 1422 and Major 4 is ongoing. It will probably stop near your target of 1336-1339.

    We would then need a wave 5 which would have to exceed 1422.

    Is this how you see it?

    1. Major 4, Wave A complete, wave b ongoing, wave c to come
    2. Once Major 4 is complete, then we should have 5 subwaves for the Major 5.

    Is this how you see it?

  4. Wave 4 was possibly done at Tuesday's low.  If not, then the rally since then is a B wave (or 2nd wave). We could also be seeing the onset of a much deeper bear market, in which case the rally since Tuesday is definitely a 2nd wave. If it's a much deeper bear market, there will be no 5th wave.