Saturday, 4/28/12 update

Very nice rally off Monday morning's low this week in the ES/SPX.  In the ES the 5th wave of that rally is an ED that started at Wednesday's 1376.25 low. That rally could be complete with the Friday morning high at 1403.00.  If so then the drop and subsequent rally that took up most of Friday can be read as waves 1 and (very deep) 2 of a developing down move.

If all this is correct then the big question is what type of a down move will we see?  The EW alternates that seem most probable at this point are (as usual) almost completely contrary to one another.  I really don't have strong leanings to any of them at this point.  Here's updated charts on the three alternates presented Wednesday, not a lot new in them , the market is yet to reveal which alternate is in play.

Alternate #1

Daily

Hourly

Alternate #2

Daily

Hourly

 Alternate #3

Daily

  Hourly

 

 

Wednesday, 4/25/12 update

Today's strong rally pretty much put the ES triangle idea to rest.  There are lots of possibilities for an EW count here, following are three that seem most probable, sorry don't have time to describe them in detail:

Alternate 1

Daily

Hourly

Alternate 2

Daily

Hourly

Alternate3

Daily

 Hourly

Tuesday, 4/24/12 update

Triangle idea updated:

Monday, 4/16/12 update

Here's a couple more alternate possibilities based on the idea that the bull move that started on Nov 25 still needs a 5th wave to complete it:

Alternate #1 : wave 4 not done, is forming a triangle

Alternate #2 : wave 4 done at 1352.50 low of Apr 10,
wave 5 forming ending diagonal

Sunday, 4/15/12 update

Pick your poison - looks bearish for equities in the immediate future. However, the coming week is op ex, which has shown a bullish bias in recent history. Also, seasonally there tends to be a spring top, but it is a bit early for that. So maybe the selling will be short lived as in Alternate #1.

Alternate #1
Daily

Hourly

Alternate #2

Daily

Hourly

Monday, 4/9/12 update

Possible ES count:

Saturday, 4/7/12 update

Friday morning's sharp drop in the ES has brought two Elliot alternates into focus: bearish and uber-bearish. As usual with Elliot, there is a bullish alternate which would have Friday's drop being pretty much the extent of the selling for now, but that alternate seems unlikely at this particular point in time.

Bearish - daily bars

Bearish - hourly bars

Uber-bearish - daily bars

Uber-bearish - hourly bars

Wednesday, 4/4/12 update

Possible Elliott count for ES:

Daily bars

120 minute bars

Hourly bars

Fibonnaci targets:

4 = .236 x 3 @ 1366.75
c = 1.618 x a @ 1363.50

4 = .382 x 3 @ 1334.00
c = 2.618 x a @ 1330.00