If this count is correct the ES shouldn't go up past 1252.50. This is because Minute W1 was longer than Minute W3. Elliott rules say a 3rd wave can't be the shortest, so Minute W5 (now in progress) can't exceed the distance of Minute W3. Adding the length of Minute W3 (11.75 points) to the low of Minute W4 at 1240.75 gives a limit of 1252.50.
There is another possibility here. Intermediate W1 lasted 25 trading days from Jul 6 to Aug 9 and took the form of a diagonal.
If Intermediate W5 were to run the same length of time it would terminate on Dec 31 - just about perfect to accommodate the normal holiday/end of year buying. Also, Int W5 already has an overlapping tendency, and it can be counted as a diagonal in progress going back to it's start at the lows of Nov 29. A projection based on these thoughts looks like this:
Note the similarities between the chart of Int W1 and the projected Int W5 - both start out with about 7 days of strong rally followed by a choppy overlapping upward drift. Interesting.
EUR
Quick update on the Elliott count on the EUR. It appears to be in a 5th wave to the move down from the Nov 4 highs.
