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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Tuesday 12/14/10 wrap up

We may have seen the top in W5 today in the ES:

Alternatively today's action might just be a Minute W4 with Minute W5 yet to happen.  That would probably carry us into the end of the week.  Personally I believe this is more likely - it is Op Ex week and I believe that will support things until it's out of the way on Friday.

Equities are less likely to roll over if the currency markets don't co-operate.  And it looks like that is shaping up.  On the DX (US$ futures), it's very likely that the end of a down market was seen at today's lows.  It appears that the move down from the highs of Nov 30 has taken the form of a double zig-zag, with the C leg of that formation done or very close to done. The lows of this retracement, if they hold, are almost exactly a Fibonnaci 38.2% of the rally from Nov 3 to Nov 30.  A rallying US$ will be bearish for equities.

Following up on one of yesterday's comments, the EUR barely avoided a buy signal on the daily Trend/Osc.  For part of the day it traded above the downtrend line delineating that market, but it fell back below that line in concert with this afternoons sell off.  Not out of the woods yet, but if we fall away from here the downtrend will remain intact.

Meanwhile the EUR hourly Trend/Osc has been in buy mode but is itself approaching a sell signal.

I'm planning to short the EUR if in fact the hourly Trend/Osc generates a sell signal.

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