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Monday, December 13, 2010

Monday 12/13/10 wrap up

ES
ES is tracking with the projection from the weekend post.  If correct, Minute W3 is done at today's high, a W4 down and W5 up yet to go. 

EUR
The EUR/US$ has been a bit of a whipsaw lately on the hourly Trend/Osc.  Buy signal on Wed, Dec1, sell signal on Tues, Dec 7 and back to a buy today.  The buy on Dec 1 was only good for a small profit (relative to what the trend/osc has been generating in the EUR) and the sell from Dec 7 was a loss.


The thing I'm noting here is that the daily Trend/Osc for the EUR is very close to a buy signal - a close above the downtrend line from the Nov 4 high will move this indicator to buy mode. 


From an Elliott Wave standpoint I have the pattern down from the Nov 4 high labeled as an impulse wave with waves 1,2, and 3 complete and wave 4 in progress.  However, the move up from the Nov 30 low is pushing the envelope in terms of time and distance if it is to be considered the 4th wave as proposed.  The drop dead point on that idea is the low of W1 at 1.3569.  All in all we are at a crossroads in the EUR.