Sunday, 7/30/17 update

It's the end of July and we find the ES/SPX still grinding it's way upwards - no summer bear this year.  But if the current EW count is correct then we could be witnessing the set up for a classic pattern of an August top followed by a bear swoon into October.  Speculative thought that, but it's definitely possible.

The particulars: On the short term, the ES looks to be closing in on a Micro W3 top, possibly around ES 2484.75 in the coming week.  That will be followed by a drop into a Micro W4 low - the ES 2460 level looks like potential support there - and thence into a Micro W5 rally.

The top of that proposed Micro W5 rally has IT significance as it will also mark the conclusion of Minute W5 of Minor W5 of Intermediate W3.  So Intermediate W4 will ensue when that occurs.  For comparison, Intermediate W2 dropped 136 points.  So we could see a drop of that much or a little more for Inter W4, and the timing is such that Inter W4 could carry into October.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Saturday, 7/15/17 update

5th wave rally in progress, in case you hadn't noticed.  At some point in the coming month we should see a top, but right now the trend is up and signs of that top are yet to appear.

Hourly bars

Daily bars

Weekly bars

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts

Sunday, 7/9/17 update

A couple of things are obvious in the ES/SPX.  The 1st is that the call on this site made on Jun 20 for a top being in place the prior day was correct.  However, although there's been lots of corrective looking activity since then, there's been no really significant damage, at least not as of yet.  The EW count proposed two weeks ago was that the 3rd wave (Intermediate W3) of a bullish impulse that dates back to Feb  2016 had topped and that Inter W4 was in progress.  That should produce a drop a lot deeper than what we've seen so far - for reference Inter W2 dropped about 140 points over 3 weeks.  So it could be that Inter W3 has not yet topped and that the ES/SPX is still building that top.  Charts for the two possibilities are below:

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts