Sunday, 7/30/17 update

It's the end of July and we find the ES/SPX still grinding it's way upwards - no summer bear this year.  But if the current EW count is correct then we could be witnessing the set up for a classic pattern of an August top followed by a bear swoon into October.  Speculative thought that, but it's definitely possible.

The particulars: On the short term, the ES looks to be closing in on a Micro W3 top, possibly around ES 2484.75 in the coming week.  That will be followed by a drop into a Micro W4 low - the ES 2460 level looks like potential support there - and thence into a Micro W5 rally.

The top of that proposed Micro W5 rally has IT significance as it will also mark the conclusion of Minute W5 of Minor W5 of Intermediate W3.  So Intermediate W4 will ensue when that occurs.  For comparison, Intermediate W2 dropped 136 points.  So we could see a drop of that much or a little more for Inter W4, and the timing is such that Inter W4 could carry into October.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts