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Sunday, June 25, 2017

Sunday, 6/25/17 update

Equity markets tend to build rounded tops rather than spike into them, so calling a top can be risky.  But it sure looks like a top of at least intermediate term significance was made at last Monday's high in the ES/SPX.  If this analysis is correct, we saw the top of the 3rd wave (Intermediate W3 to be precise) of the bull move which started at the February, 2016 lows.  The daily chart below outlines that count:


If we are in fact in Intermediate W4 we should see a down move to the ES 2320-2315 area which was the area of the low of Minor W4 of Inter W3.

Hourly chart:


The price action since last Monday's high has served to corroborate the idea that we've transitioned to a bear market.  Since that high there's been a clear 5 wave impulse down into a short term oversold condition on Wednesday, with a corrective looking series of overlapping 3 wave patterns since - as opposed to a sharp upward impulse that is normally seen at the low of a short term corrective pattern.  So odds are good of at least another down impulse in the near future, and if the above counts are correct probably a lot more.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts
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