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Saturday, June 17, 2017

Saturday, 6/17/17 update

I find that trending markets are easier to analyze from an EW standpoint than cycling (sideways) markets.  They're also easier to trade.  Unfortunately, markets spend more of their time cycling than trending.  Such has been the case in the ES/SPX since the first of the month.
Right now the price action since Jun 2nd has been a sideways trading range affair which has generated an ambiguous EW pattern.  The market laid down a flat type corrective sequence from the beginning of the month into the tech selloff low of Friday, Jun 9.  Normal expectation would be for a clear 5 wave impulse rally off the Jun 9 low, but that's not what we saw last week.  Examining the chart it looks like two main possibilities are apparent at this juncture: either the Jun 2nd high was a Minute W3 top of a bull sequence that commenced on Apr 19 with Minute W4 of that sequence a triangle that ended on Friday, OR the Jun 2nd high was wave 1 of that Minute W3 with the low of Jun 9 marking the end of wave 2 - and the pattern this last week would be a series of nested waves 1 & 2 of an extended 3rd wave of Minute W3:

The above count is based on the idea that Minor W3 of the bull market that started on election day 2016 was complete at the Mar 1st highs and that Minor W5 is now in progress.  The alternate count is that Minor W3 is still in progress.  The alternate carries a lower probability IMHO, but if in fact it is what's in play then Minor W3 could well have topped on Jun 2nd and we may be in for more corrective activity.

 NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts
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