The preferred count for the ES/SPX has the market in a Minor W3 rally that commenced on the election day lows of last November. As of last weekend's update Minute W1, W2 and W3 were complete with Minute W4 in progress. Minute W4 appears to have bottomed at last Monday's low, so the presumption is that Minute W5 is underway. ST count under that scenario looks like this:
Longer term perspective:
As indicated on the chart a 1st target level for Minute W5 and thus Minor W3 is ES 2412.00. It needs to be noted that Elliott Wave rules are that the 3rd wave in an impulse cannot be the
shortest wave. In the current count for Minor W3 off the election day
low Minute W3 is shorter than Minute W1. Thus Minute W5 cannot be
longer than Minute W3 for the count to be valid. The invalidation price
level that is indicated is ES 2470.25 if in fact Minute W4 was complete
at last Monday's low. If that level is exceeded during the anticipated
rally then the most likely inference is that Minor W3 is extending
(subdividing) in some fashion.
Finally it also needs to be noted that the alternate count presented last weekend is still in play.
NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecasts