Sunday, 2/5/17 update

There are always two questions to be answered in market analysis: what's possible and what's probable.   Currently there are two possibilities if our EW count for the ES/SPX is correct, and those are that Minute W5 of Minor W3 topped at the Jan 26 ATH or that the Jan 26 high only marked the top of Micro W1 of Minute W5.  As far as what's probable there is not a definitive favorite.   In EW waves 1 & 5 generally are similar in time duration and wave 5 relates to wave 1 by a fibonacci multiple.  Minute W1 was the initial thrust out of the election day low and lasted 2 days, the rally that led to the Jan 26 high was about 4 days, so they are similarly brief in duration.  However, the possible Minute W5 was not a fibonacci multiple of Minute W1 - in fact it didn't even achieve a .382 multiple of Minute W1 (Trump enthusiasm waning?).  Because of the quick duration of the Jan 23 - 26 rally the possibility that Minute W5 topped on Jan 26 has an edge, but only a very slight one.  

Long term count: