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Saturday, February 25, 2017

Saturday, 2/25/17 update

After an initial surge last Monday the ES/SPX finally embarked on some corrective activity for the remainder of the week.  If the current ST count is correct then we're in Micro W4 of Minute W5.  Micro W2 was a simple zig-zag, so Micro W4 should be a flat, diagonal or some type of complex structure.  Micro W5 will follow into a more significant top.

Longer term perspective:

One thing of note on the above Intermediate Term count is that Minute W3 (green) of Minor W3 (red) is shorter than Minute W1.  EW rules dictate that the 3rd wave of an impulse cannot be the shortest wave, so if the move currently counted as Minute W5 exceeds the length of Minute W3 then the count is invalidated.  That invalidation level lies at ES 2381.00.  In that event then the move up from the Minute W2 low into the top currently labeled Minute W3 will be relabeled as Micro W1 of Minute W3 and the potential top for the whole sequence from the early November low moves up significantly.

NOTE: dotted lines show potential EW structures and are not necessarily accurate price/time forecast
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