Tuesday, 8/23/16 update

Looks like a flat correction in progress over the last week and a half.

Sunday, 8/14/16 update

From a long term perspective the equities markets continue to show divergences of the blue chips as measured by the S&P 500 as compared to the broader market, represented in the below charts by the NYSE (NYA) and the Russell 2000 (RUT):

My current long term count has the ES/SPX working out at least one 4th/5th wave sequence of the bull market that commenced at the MAR 2009 lows.  A narrowing of relative strength in equities to favor blue chips vs other issues is a characteristic of 5th waves, so the long term perspective is confirmed by the above charts.  The obvious message is that a bear market of some significance is getting closer.

On the short term, crude oil looks to have established a low at almost exactly a 50% retrace of the early February to early June rally:

This could provide some lift to the ES/SPX.

Current EW counts for the ES can be found here.

Sunday, 8/7/16 update

ES/SPX finally woke up from it's mid-summer slumber this last week.  The EW count has not changed significantly after the last two weeks of sideways churn.  Alternate counts are essentially the same as those proposed two weeks ago:

OR