My current long term count has the ES/SPX working out at least one 4th/5th wave sequence of the bull market that commenced at the MAR 2009 lows. A narrowing of relative strength in equities to favor blue chips vs other issues is a characteristic of 5th waves, so the long term perspective is confirmed by the above charts. The obvious message is that a bear market of some significance is getting closer.
On the short term, crude oil looks to have established a low at almost exactly a 50% retrace of the early February to early June rally:
This could provide some lift to the ES/SPX.
Current EW counts for the ES can be found here.
